tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63156.post109937607141754384..comments2024-03-14T08:28:55.302-04:00Comments on Android's Dungeon: Last Minute PredictionJon Granthamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10730444988594582302noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63156.post-1099772198218006432004-11-06T15:16:00.000-05:002004-11-06T15:16:00.000-05:001. At 1 AM EST, when I stopped watching, CNN was ...1. At 1 AM EST, when I stopped watching, CNN was not projecting a winner, but all of the pundits were talking about why Kerry lost. It's hard to pinpoint an exact time at which we "knew" the winner. But <A HREF="http://www.blogger.com/r?http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fwp-dyn%2Farticles%2FA23756-2004Nov3.html">if you look at this article</A>, it wasn't too long after 3 that networks started giving Nevada to Bush, which put him over the top along with Ohio. The networks that gave Bush Ohio did not give him Nevada, and vice versa, so who knows when we "knew"?<br /><br />2. According to <A HREF="http://www.blogger.com/r?http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2FELECTION%2F2004%2Fpages%2Fresults%2Fpresident%2F">this page</A>, the margin was around 3%, so I was a bit low.<br /><br />3. Bush won by 34; I think 50 was a respectable guess.Jon Granthamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10730444988594582302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63156.post-1099747211123873822004-11-06T08:20:00.000-05:002004-11-06T08:20:00.000-05:00Are you going to tell us how your predictions matc...Are you going to tell us how your predictions matched up with reality -- or am I going to have to read a newspaper?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63156.post-1099427968807013222004-11-02T15:39:00.000-05:002004-11-02T15:39:00.000-05:00After having some time to think it over, I believe...After having some time to think it over, I believe that I want to refine prediction #2 to "around 1.5% of the popular vote". Insert around in appropriate places in #1 and #3. <br /><br />Time to go look and see if anybody's leaked the exit polls.Jon Granthamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10730444988594582302noreply@blogger.com