Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2020/21 Third-Round Preview

All four made it through to the Europa League third round (Motherwell barely), so let's preview where the third round and possible playoff round have us headed.

The Coefficient

Still the same 10-16 neighborhood within 4 points of Scotland. They gained a little bit on Ukraine in the race for 12th.

There's not a lot of movement this year, because of the reduced maximum points (0.75 instead of 1) for a club winning and a guaranteed parting gift of at least 0.25 for clubs that lose.

In order to keep rising, Scotland needs both halves of the Old Firm to progress to the group stage. In order to tread water, they need one half. If either of the other sides makes it through to the playoff round, I consider that a bonus.

Celtic

Celtic (ELO 1629), as expected, return to action against Riga (ELO 1203). That should be an easy win, but away matches are tricky, especially in this weird year. If they make it through, they face the winners between Bosnian champions Sarajevo (ELO 1272) and Montenegrin champions Budućnost Podgorica (ELO 1098). It's a clear path if they can take advantage of it, but they will be away again.

Rangers

Rangers (ELO 1607) blasted Lincoln Red Imps 5-0, to set up a showdown with Willem II (ELO 1468). They should win, but it probably won't be easy. If they take care of business in the Netherlands, they host the winner of Galatasaray (ELO 1522) and Hadjuk Split (ELO 1460). Definitely possible, but not as easy of a path as Celtic.

Motherwell

Motherwell (ELO 1303) needed penalties to see off Coleraine, which meant they missed out on 0.125 for the coefficient in the process. They now face Hapoel Be'er Sheva (ELO 1382). It's not a definite loss, but it is likely. If they sneak through, they host the winner of APOEL (ELO 1590) and Zrinjiski Mostar (ELO 1276). That doesn't make group stage likely, but again, this is a weird year.

Aberdeen

Aberdeen (ELO 1422) took care of Viking FK, but face another road match at Sporting CP (ELO 1614). A win there means they face either LASK (ELO 1636) or  Dunajská (ELO 1363). The Aberdonians definitely face the hardest path of any Scottish side.

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2020/21 Second Round Review/Preview

Well, this is the last time this season we have to worry about the disconnect between the Champions League rounds and the Europa League rounds, as Celtic got bounced out of the Champions League. For reasons I don't understand, all four Scottish teams are away for the third round.

The Coefficient

  

 There's not change worth mentioning here.

Celtic

Celtic (ELO 1623) lost their second-round Champions League game (still picking up .25 for the coefficient because COVID), so they are idle until the third round, where they face the winner of Riga (ELO 1213) and Tre Fiori (ELO 701). Let's say it's going to be Riga, and let's say Celtic better win.

Rangers

Rangers (ELO 1605) take on Lincoln Red Imps (ELO 904). Another "better win" situation. If they do, it's on to face the winner of Progrès Niederkorn (ELO 1124) and Willem II (ELO 1469). Willem II could prove a tough opponent, but it's the type of match Rangers needs to (keep) winning if they want to return to, let's say, the top 100 European clubs.

Motherwell

Motherwell (ELO 1296) are having a terrible domestic season, and will hope to salvage good news against Coleraine (ELO 1090), their second consecutive Northern Irish opponent. They should win, but I'm not too confident. Success would see them up against the winner of Laçi (ELO 1214) and Hapoel Be'er Sheva (ELO 1387). I don't see them getting past Hapoel.

Aberdeen

Would someone please get Derek McInnes to the group stage? Aberdeen (ELO 1418) take on Viking (ELO 1360), and then hopefully Sporting CP (ELO 1618). Oof.