Scottish Football: Three To Go

I have updated my crude simulation after this weekend's games. The new probabilities are:

1. Celtic 99.6% Rangers 0.4%
2. Rangers 99.6% Celtic 0.4%
3. Aberdeen 67.4% Kilmarnock 30.9% Hibs 1.8%
4. Kilmarnock 59.1% Aberdeen 31.1% Hibs 9.6% Hearts 0.2%
5. Hibs 76.1% Hearts 12.7% Kilmarnock 9.7% Aberdeen 1.5%
6. Hearts 87.1% Hibs 12.6% Kilmarnock 0.3%

In words, Celtic failed to clinch the title, but is almost certain to. Rangers clinched no worse than 2nd (and a European place). The race for 3rd and 4th is still basically Aberdeen and Kilmarnock, with Aberdeen 2-1 favorites to nab 3rd, and Hibs having an 11% chance of sneaking in there. The difference between 3rd and 4th will matter if Hearts shocks Celtic for the Cup.