If Motherwell wins the Cup, they're in Europe (with the first-round bye), and one of Hibs, Aberdeen and Rangers loses the game of musical chairs. It's not entirely clear whom. Here's what my simulation shows:
- Celtic 100%
- Aberdeen 60.5% Rangers 21.3% Hibs 18.2%
- Rangers 39.8% Hibs 33.0% Aberdeen 27.2%
- Hibs 48.7% Rangers 38.9% Aberdeen 12.3%
- Killie 99.6% Hearts 0.4%
- Hearts 99.6% Killie 0.4%
Here is where a weakness in my simulation comes in. Rangers and Hibs have both faced Celtic already; Aberdeen is up next. The projected higher finish for Aberdeen does not reflect that harder road ahead.