Tuesday, May 01, 2018

Scottish Football: Three Matches to Go

Well, last weekend's matches determined a couple of things. Celtic clinched the league, and thus the Champions Cup berth. Kilmarnock will do no better than fifth, and is thus out of Europe. (Whew.) Hibs, Aberdeen and Rangers are the Europa League entrants, if Celtic wins the Cup. In that case, all that is left to be determined is who gets the first-round bye.

If Motherwell wins the Cup, they're in Europe (with the first-round bye), and one of Hibs, Aberdeen and Rangers loses the game of musical chairs. It's not entirely clear whom. Here's what my simulation shows:
  1. Celtic 100%
  2. Aberdeen 60.5% Rangers 21.3% Hibs 18.2%
  3. Rangers 39.8% Hibs 33.0% Aberdeen 27.2%
  4. Hibs 48.7% Rangers 38.9% Aberdeen 12.3%
  5. Killie 99.6% Hearts 0.4%
  6. Hearts 99.6% Killie 0.4%

Here is where a weakness in my simulation comes in. Rangers and Hibs have both faced Celtic already; Aberdeen is up next. The projected higher finish for Aberdeen does not reflect that harder road ahead.
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