Monday, October 19, 2020

Where's Jon? Surprise Non-Virtual Canadian Edition

 

Jon giving a talk
Pictures are now on-line from a conference I went to last year in Waterloo.

I spent some time finding a couple of images of me in the audience before stumbling across this one of me giving my talk.

Wednesday, October 07, 2020

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2020/21 Group-Stage Preview

We have group stage! For two clubs!
🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆
Just like last year! And the year before that!

The Coefficient


What I take from this is that Scotland is firmly entrenched with two Champions League spots for 2022/23. In other words, to drop below 15th, they would need to be caught not only by Denmark and Cyprus (difficult when each nation only has 1 team left in Europe), but one other nation would need to make up more than 4.5 points in the group stage and beyond.

In fact, let us set aside anything even as unlikely as Scotland being caught by Denmark or themselves catching Austria. What is at stake for the coefficient in the group stage?

Scotland, by holding on to 13th, would have their champion enter the Champions League no earlier than the third qualifying round, and likely the playoff round. If they could make it to 12th, they would guarantee that playoff round slot, and one of their Europa Conference League teams would get to enter into that competition's third qualifying round, instead of the second. If they make it to 11th, they would likely (but not guaranteed) go straight into the Champions League group stages.

(The "likely"s in the above are if the Champions League winner qualifies for the Champions League group stages another way -- that was true of seven of this year's quarterfinalists, including the eventual winner. There are other weird things that could happen, because UEFA.)

Using Fivethirtyeight's match predictions, we expect Scotland to gain 3 points in the group stage, while Turkey gets 1 point, and Ukraine gets 2.5. That would put Scotland barely ahead of Ukraine, and probably not settle things if some clubs go on to the knockout rounds. I guess my summary would be, expect Turkey to fade, and despite Ukraine's three teams, two of them being in the Champions League means more losses are expected there.

 


Saturday, October 03, 2020

Where's Jon? Virtually Québec City Edition

 

These online conference photos are easier, because my name is generally on my picture. I forgot to turn on my camera for this one, so it's my profile picture. That's fine, I suppose, as I was in a bike shop at the time, trying to use a virtual background. This one is from the Québec-Maine Number Theory Conference last weekend. I still really want to go to Québec City. Maybe 2022 or 2024.

Friday, September 18, 2020

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2020/21 Third-Round Preview

All four made it through to the Europa League third round (Motherwell barely), so let's preview where the third round and possible playoff round have us headed.

The Coefficient


Still the same 10-16 neighborhood within 4 points of Scotland. They gained a little bit on Ukraine in the race for 12th.

There's not a lot of movement this year, because of the reduced maximum points (0.75 instead of 1) for a club winning and a guaranteed parting gift of at least 0.25 for clubs that lose.

In order to keep rising, Scotland needs both halves of the Old Firm to progress to the group stage. In order to tread water, they need one half. If either of the other sides makes it through to the playoff round, I consider that a bonus.

Celtic

Celtic (ELO 1629), as expected, return to action against Riga (ELO 1203). That should be an easy win, but away matches are tricky, especially in this weird year. If they make it through, they face the winners between Bosnian champions Sarajevo (ELO 1272) and Montenegrin champions Budućnost Podgorica (ELO 1098). It's a clear path if they can take advantage of it, but they will be away again.

Rangers

Rangers (ELO 1607) blasted Lincoln Red Imps 5-0, to set up a showdown with Willem II (ELO 1468). They should win, but it probably won't be easy. If they take care of business in the Netherlands, they host the winner of Galatasaray (ELO 1522) and Hadjuk Split (ELO 1460). Definitely possible, but not as easy of a path as Celtic.

Motherwell

Motherwell (ELO 1303) needed penalties to see off Coleraine, which meant they missed out on 0.125 for the coefficient in the process. They now face Hapoel Be'er Sheva (ELO 1382). It's not a definite loss, but it is likely. If they sneak through, they host the winner of APOEL (ELO 1590) and Zrinjiski Mostar (ELO 1276). That doesn't make group stage likely, but again, this is a weird year.

Aberdeen

Aberdeen (ELO 1422) took care of Viking FK, but face another road match at Sporting CP (ELO 1614). A win there means they face either LASK (ELO 1636) or  Dunajská (ELO 1363). The Aberdonians definitely face the hardest path of any Scottish side.

Friday, September 11, 2020

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2020/21 Second Round Review/Preview


Well, this is the last time this season we have to worry about the disconnect between the Champions League rounds and the Europa League rounds, as Celtic got bounced out of the Champions League. For reasons I don't understand, all four Scottish teams are away for the third round.

The Coefficient

  

 There's not change worth mentioning here.

Celtic

Celtic (ELO 1623) lost their second-round Champions League game (still picking up .25 for the coefficient because COVID), so they are idle until the third round, where they face the winner of Riga (ELO 1213) and Tre Fiori (ELO 701). Let's say it's going to be Riga, and let's say Celtic better win.

Rangers

Rangers (ELO 1605) take on Lincoln Red Imps (ELO 904). Another "better win" situation. If they do, it's on to face the winner of Progrès Niederkorn (ELO 1124) and Willem II (ELO 1469). Willem II could prove a tough opponent, but it's the type of match Rangers needs to (keep) winning if they want to return to, let's say, the top 100 European clubs.

Motherwell

Motherwell (ELO 1296) are having a terrible domestic season, and will hope to salvage good news against Coleraine (ELO 1090), their second consecutive Northern Irish opponent. They should win, but I'm not too confident. Success would see them up against the winner of Laçi (ELO 1214) and Hapoel Be'er Sheva (ELO 1387). I don't see them getting past Hapoel.

Aberdeen

Would someone please get Derek McInnes to the group stage? Aberdeen (ELO 1418) take on Viking (ELO 1360), and then hopefully Sporting CP (ELO 1618). Oof.

Monday, August 31, 2020

Geocaching in the Time of Coronavirus

Well, my record pace of geocaching screeched to a halt with the spread of the pandemic, so I am back to longer intervals between updates. It was not so much that the restrictions inhibited my geocaching (though the lack of travel has hurt), but more time was required for other things, like stocking up on groceries and taking care of kids who were suddenly home from school. Before the pandemic hit, I found two geocaches in March. One during a quick trip to Leesburg, another while camping. 

I returned to the geocaching scene by finding one on Father's Day.  That earned me the "Blue Switch Day 2020" (Souvenir 69). Never mind what Blue Switch Day is -- the important thing is that you can get the souvenir all year long, because coronavirus.

Then I found three in July, including my first ones hidden in March 2020 (Month 208) and April 2020 (Month 209). I also picked up a souvenir in the Memory Lane promotion (Souvenir 70), which is lasting all year long, because coronavirus.

In August I found 10 geocaches, including my first from July 2020 (Month 210) and June 2010 (Month 211). I picked up another Memory Lane souvenir (Souvenir 71). Things have really picked up now that I am biking regularly.

 My months left to find has gone up to 33 from 31, which is not bad, considering. There was one from August 2020 that I biked to on the 30th, but forgot a pen, so I didn't search for it. I suspect in September I can get at least two months and start shrinking that number again.

My future updates will, for now, align with the meteorological seasons, because it is much easier to follow calendar months.