Stay-At-Home Bowl Update through 2024 and Recap

One of this blog's long-running features (for over two decades!) has been something I invented called the Stay-At-Home Bowl Trophy, awarded to the team (or teams!) who have defeated both Super Bowl participants. It's been a couple of years since I've updated. Looking back, I also have the results scattered among a variety of blog posts, so after seeing what happened in both 2023 and 2024 (I award by the calendar year of the regular season, not by the Super Bowl), I'm going to give the all-time list of winners.

The 2023 season ended in a matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers. Both lost five or more games, but there was no overlap.

The 2024 season saw the Eagles defeat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. The two teams combined for only five regular season losses, and there was again no overlap.

So your to-date list of teams which have defeated both Super Bowl entrants remains:

• 2021 49ers
• 2021 Packers
• 2017 Chiefs
• 2016 Seahawks
• 2014 Chiefs
• 2013 Colts
• 2010 Patriots
• 2008 Eagles
• 2008 Giants
• 2005 Jaguars
• 2004 Steelers
• 2000 Skins
  
• 2000 Titans
  
• 1996 Cowboys
  
• 1993 Dolphins
  
• 1986 Seahawks
  
• 1985 Dolphins
  
• 1981 Browns
  
• 1980 Cowboys
  
• 1980 Chargers
  
• 1979 Chargers
  
• 1978 Rams

2020-2022 Stay-At-Home Bowl Update

I have been behind in awarding the Stay-At-Home Bowl trophy, which is given to a team who defeats both Super Bowl participants.

2020: No winner.

2021: 49ers and Packers

2022: No winner.

The 2021 season was the first one since 2008 to feature two winners.

2019 Stay-At-Home Bowl: No Winner

With the conference championships now set, there is going to be no Stay-At-Home Bowl winner this season.

I.e., the teams that beat the Chiefs or Titans did not beat the Packers or 49ers, and vice versa.

2019 Stay-At-Home Bowl

I never did a final post about last year's Stay-At-Home Bowl, mainly because nobody won.

As a reminder, the Stay-At-Home Bowl is "the honor I bestow upon a team that has beaten both Super Bowl participants."

One final bit of business from last year's season, though, the 2017 winner, Kansas City, lost in the 2018 AFC Championship game. Now 12 of the 20 winners have made the playoffs the following year.

The possible winners this year are:

• Baltimore Ravens
• New Orleans Saints
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Green Bay Packers
• Philadelphia Eagles
• New England Patriots
• Miami Dolphins 

The most unexpected entrant there is the Dolphins, who started 0-7 before going on to beat both the Eagles and the Patriots.

The Washington Post wrote an article about the most likely Super Bowl matchups. You have to get to the 9th-most-likely game (Patriots/49ers) before you have a winner (Ravens). The 10th-most-likely game (Ravens/Vikings) also has a winner (Chiefs).

2018 Stay-At-Home Bowl Preview

It is playoff time in the NFL, which means that as a Redskins fan, I turn my attention to something other than following my team.

Yes, it's the Stay-At-Home Bowl, the honor I bestow upon a team that has beaten both Super Bowl participants. With the final eight teams decided, there are five out of the sixteen possible Super Bowls that will cause the honor to be bestowed.

• New England-Dallas: Tennessee would win.
• New England-Philadelphia: Tennessee would also win.
• Kansas City-Dallas: Seattle would win.
• Indianapolis-Rams: Philadelphia would win.
• Indianapolis-Dallas: Houston would win.

I guess what I am saying is that the NFC East wasn't very good, so their playoff teams lost to a lot of teams, so in the unlikely event that one of them ends up in the playoffs (dear God, no), there's a decent chance you have a winner.

Last year's winner, Kansas City is doing pretty well this year, continuing the trend of winners having a good next season.

2017 Stay-At-Home Bowl: Congrats, Kansas City

It has come time to see if there is a winner of the 2017 Stay-At-Home Bowl, the dubious honor I bestow on any NFL team that has beaten both Super Bowl participants.

The 20th winner of the Stay-At-Home Bowl is the Kansas City Chiefs, who defeated New England and Philadelphia in the first two weeks of the season, perhaps the high point of their season. This is their second win in three years. They join the Chargers (1979, 1980), Cowboys (1980, 1996), Dolphins (1985, 1993) and Seahawks (1986, 2016) as two-time winners. There are no three-time winners, yet.

Last year's winner, Seattle, missed the playoffs, so only 11 of the 19 previous winners made the playoffs the following year. Still better than random!

2016 Stay-At-Home Bowl: Congrats, Seattle

As I said two weeks ago,

If New England goes to the Super Bowl, nobody wins the SAH Bowl.

 So there you go.


Wait, what? I just went to check things out, and it appears Seattle beat both of them. Oops. So congratulations Seattle.

2016 Stay-At-Home Bowl: Conference Championships

Well, I did such a great job with last week's preview, that I can just read the state of affairs off there. If New England goes to the Super Bowl, there is no winner. If Pittsburgh does, we have a winner, which will be Dallas if Green Bay goes, and Philly if Atlanta goes.

As a Redskins fan, I would not like to see either team win anything, even something that I made up, but I will still be rooting for Pittsburgh. (Despite the fact that Tom Brady is an alumnus of the finest institute of higher learning known to mankind.)

2016 Stay-At-Home Bowl: Divisional Round Playoffs

For a reminder of what I'm talking about, and a preview of this year's Stay-At-Home bowl, please see last week's post.

Well, those wild card playoffs really collapsed the timelines, didn't they? With Miami and Detroit out, Tennessee's possibilities are narrowed to KC-Green Bay and Houston-Green Bay. With the Giants out, Philadelphia is down to Pittsburgh-Atlanta and Pittsburgh-Dallas. With the Giants and Lions out, Green Bay is down to Houston-Seattle. Dallas is down to Pittsburgh-Green Bay. Tampa still has KC-Atlanta and KC-Seattle. Pittsburgh, Houston and KC are eliminated. San Diego still has Houston-Atlanta. Atlanta and Seattle are eliminated.

To recap:
If New England goes to the Super Bowl, nobody wins the SAH Bowl.
If KC goes, there is a winner, unless Dallas goes.
If Pittsburgh goes, there is a winner, unless Seattle goes.
If Houston goes, there is a winner unless Dallas goes.

So six teams are alive under nine of the sixteen remaining scenarios. There will be no shared victory this year.

Since the Patriots are the overwhelming favorites in the NFC, there is a good chance of no winner. Still, the Steelers are second-favorites, and a Pittsburgh-Dallas SB would make Philly the winner. Stay tuned next week, when we will be down to four teams, four possible Super Bowls, and anywhere between one and four possible stay-at-home scenarios.

2016 Stay-At-Home Bowl Preview

Welcome to the second annual Android's Dungeon Stay-At-Home Bowl preview. As is our tradition, we begin by reminding you what the Stay-At-Home Bowl is. It's awarded to the team or teams who defeat both Super Bowl participants. Last year, nobody won it.

Why is it the 2016 Stay-At-Home Bowl rather than the 2017 edition? Is it in honor of the regular season where most of the games were played? Or did I just forget what year it was last year when I ran the 2015 Bowl? Who knows?

Before the playoffs start this year, which teams are eligible? And which teams should be considered favorites?

The way I thought about this last year is that there are 36 possible Super Bowl matchups at this point, since there are 6 teams left in each conference. Let's consider the total number of possible Super Bowl matchups that will make each team a "winner."

In this scenario, Tennessee is the favorite, since they were the only team to defeat multiple playoff teams from each conference. They win if the Super Bowl is Miami-Detroit, Miami-Green Bay, KC-Detroit, KC-Green Bay, Houston-Detroit, or Houston-Green Bay.

Two teams have three possibilities: Philadelphia and Green Bay.

Two teams have two possibilities: Dallas and Tampa Bay.

Six teams have one possibility: Pittsburgh, Houston, KC, San Diego, Atlanta and Seattle.

As last year, playoff teams are heavily represented here (7 out of 11) and stay-at-home teams make the playoffs a lot (7 out of 12).

Looking back at the Tennessee scenarios, those seem pretty unlikely Super Bowls. So let's grade each team's chances based on the seeds of the playoff teams they beat. Basically, assign six points to beating the number one seed, down to one point for beating the number six seed. For each possible scenario, multiply the two numbers together, and add all possible scenarios. So beating both number one seeds (hypothetically, nobody did) would be worth 36 points, while beating both number six seeds (as Tennessee did) would be worth 1.

I won't run down the full list, but Philadelphia is in first at 52 points with Pittsburgh-Dallas, Pittsburgh-Atlanta and Pittsburgh-Giants being relatively likely Super Bowls. Then comes Tampa Bay with 45 points on the strength of Kansas City-Atlanta and Kansas City-Seattle. Tennessee's six scenarios garner 36 points, and Seattle gets 35 from New England-Atlanta and Miami-Atlanta.

Stay tuned next week, when we cut down to 16 scenarios.

2015 Stay-At-Home Bowl: No Winner

Hey, remember when I said, "In fact, no team beat top 2 seeds from both conferences, so one of the 3-6 seeds would need to make it through on at least one side to ensure a winner." Well, the top 2 seeds all made it through to the conference championships, so we have no winner this year. Also, with the Chiefs' exit, the record is 7 of 18 previous winners making the conference championship game. See you next year!

2015 Stay-At-Home Bowl Update: And Then There Were Five

After last weekend's Wild Card action, there are five teams alive in the 2015 Stay-At-Home Bowl. With four teams left alive in each conference, there are sixteen possible Super Bowl matchups. Only four give us a Stay-At-Home Bowl winner, but one would give us our first triple winner, and another the rare double winner.

• Chicago wins with a Kansas City-Green Bay Super Bowl.
• Cincinnati wins with either Kansas City-Seattle or Pittsburgh-Seattle.
• Denver wins with either Kansas City-Green Bay or New England-Green Bay.
• Green Bay wins with Kansas City-Seattle.
• Minnesota wins with Kansas City-Green Bay.

2015 Stay-At-Home Bowl Preview

Welcome to the Android's Dungeon first ever Stay-At-Home Bowl preview. Let me start by reminding you what the Stay-At-Home Bowl is. It's awarded to the team or teams who defeat both Super Bowl participants. Needless to say, some years the award is vacant.

• Here is the original 2003 post honoring the first 11 winners.
• Here is the 2011 update naming the next five.
• Here is the 2014 post honoring the Colts.
• Here is last year's post on the Chiefs.

The Chiefs rode a 10-game win streak to an 11-5 record and the playoffs, so we are now at 11 of 18 Stay-At-Home winners making it to the playoffs.

But before the playoffs start this year, which teams are eligible? And which teams should be considered favorites?

The way I am thinking about this is that there are 36 possible Super Bowl matchups at this point, since there are 6 teams left in each conference. Let's consider the total number of possible Super Bowl matchups that will make each team a "winner."

Under this scenario, Denver is the favorite, given that they are the only team to defeat multiple playoff teams from both conferences. They win the title if the Super Bowl matchup is Green Bay-Cincinnati, Green Bay-Kansas City, Green Bay-New England, Minnesota-Cincinnati, Minnesota-Kansas City or Minnesota-New England.

Three teams have three possibilities: Arizona, Carolina and New England.

Five teams have two possibilities: Atlanta, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Miami and Minnesota.

Three teams have one possibility: Chicago, the Jets and Seattle.

So only four out of the twelve teams in contention didn't make the playoffs: Atlanta, Miami, Chicago and the Jets.

Conversely, only four of the twelve playoff teams aren't in contention: Houston, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Washington. (Washington is the only playoff team not to have defeated any other playoff team.)

While on three previous occasions we have had double winners (1980, 2000, 2008), we have never had triple winners. A Washington-Houston Super Bowl would guarantee a quadruple winner, as both teams lost to Atlanta, Carolina, Miami and New England. A Kansas City-Green Bay Super Bowl would produce a triple winner, with Chicago, Denver and Minnesota sharing the title.

Having either Denver or Arizona in the Super Bowl would mean zero winners, since neither team lost to a team which also beat a playoff team from the other conference. In fact, no team beat top 2 seeds from both conferences, so one of the 3-6 seeds would need to make it through on at least one side to ensure a winner.

Winners are possible with 16 of the 36 potential Super Bowls. After this weekend, the number of possible Super Bowls will drop to 16, so the field will be narrowed considerably. I'll try to update you when that happens.

Stay-At-Home Bowl 2015 Winners: KC Chiefs

View image | gettyimages.com

One of this blog's (few remaining) running features is noting the winners of what I have dubbed the "Stay at Home Bowl" -- the teams to defeat both Super Bowl participants. Last year's winner, the Indianapolis Colts made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game, demonstrating the obvious: if you can beat both Super Bowl participants, you're probably good. Of the 17 teams to have won this honor, 7 have made it to the conference championship game, and 10 have made the playoffs.

This year's winner is the Chiefs, who beat the Seahawks 24-20 and the Patriots 41-14.

Congratulations, Indianapolis Colts, Your Stay at Home Bowl Winners

This blog has previously examined the weird situation of teams which have beaten both Super Bowl entrants. This year's addition to the list is the 2013 Indianapolis Colts. (No team achieved the feat the past two seasons.)

The 2010 Patriots, the last team to earn this distinction, lost the Super Bowl the following year. That ups the percentages to 37.5% for teams making the Conference Championships in the next season, and 62.5% for them making the playoffs.

So, like everyone already knew, expect the Colts to be good next year.

The "Stay at Home Bowl": Dubious Achievement Update

In 2003, I gave a list of all of the teams to defeat both Super Bowl participants. Teams that can sit at home and say, "We can beat either of these guys." At the time, I was rooting for a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, since the (5-11) Redskins had beaten both teams and would have tied the 1981 Browns for the worst team to have this "dubious achievement" had the Seahawks not exited the playoffs before the Big Game. I was reminded of this post recently when I heard Bob Ryan on Tony Kornheiser's radio show talk about how great the 2010 Patriots were because they had beaten both Super Bowl entrants. So which teams in the past 8 years get added to the list?

• 2010 New England Patriots (14-2)
• 2008 Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1)
• 2008 New York Giants (12-4)
• 2005 Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
• 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers (15-1) 

The Patriots are second only to the 2004 Steelers for the team with the best record to hold this distinction. Let's ask the following question, though.  Of the 15 previous winners of the "Stay at Home Bowl", how did each team fare the following season?

• Won Super Bowl: 2005 Steelers
• Lost Super Bowl: 1979 Rams
• Lost in Conference Championship: 1980 Chargers*, 1981 Chargers, 2008 Eagles
• Lost in Divisional Round: 1994 Dolphins
• Lost in Wild Card Round: 1982 Browns, 1987 Seahawks
• Missed Playoffs: 1986 Dolphins, 1997 Cowboys, 2001 Titans, 2001 Redskins, 2006 Jaguars, 2009 Giants

So these teams have a 60% success rate making the playoffs next year, well above the normal rate (which has been between 35 and 43 percent, except for the 1982 strike year). Perhaps more impressive, these teams have a 33% rate of making the conference championship game, well above the 12-15% rate when you consider all teams.

Dubious Achievement

Well, with the NFL season winding down and the Redskins all but eliminated from the playoffs, I have the question of what to root for. There's beating the Cowboys and the Eagles and hurting their playoff hopes (or positioning). There's going out on a winning note -- if the Skins run the table, they can avoid a losing season.

But I'm rooting for one sort of odd achievement. How about a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl? That would mean that the Skins would have beaten both of the Super Bowl teams -- a feat last achieved in 2000...by the Washington Redskins (8-8). OK, and the 2000 Titans (13-3). Still, the Titans had something else to root for that year...they were Super Bowl contenders in their own right. So I asked the questions: How often have teams beaten both Super Bowl teams, and have they ever been worse than the 2000 Skins?

The answers: 11 and yes (thanks to pro-football-reference.com).

The complete list:

• 2000 Skins (8-8)
  
• 2000 Titans (13-3)
  
• 1996 Cowboys (10-6)
  
• 1993 Dolphins (9-7)
  
• 1986 Seahawks (10-6)
  
• 1985 Dolphins (12-4)
  
• 1981 Browns (5-11)
  
• 1980 Cowboys (12-4)
  
• 1980 Chargers (11-5)
  
• 1979 Chargers (12-4)
  
• 1978 Rams (12-4)