Sunday, April 21, 2019

Scottish Football: Four Matches To Go

I will once again use my crude simulation to update the top half of the Scottish Premiership as each set of matches goes by.

  1. Celtic 98.8% Rangers 1.2%
  2. Rangers 97.4% Celtic 1.2% Aberdeen 1.2% Kilmarnock 0.2%
  3. Aberdeen 64.1% Kilmarnock 33.0% Hibs 1.5% Rangers 4.1% Hearts 0.01%
  4. Kilmarnock 58.8% Aberdeen 32.9% Hibs 7.9% Hearts 0.4% Rangers 0.03%
  5. Hibs 71.6% Hearts 18.7% Kilmarnock 7.9% Aberdeen 1.8%
  6. Hearts 80.8% Hibs 19.0% Kilmarnock 0.1% Aberdeen 0.003%

So, in words. Celtic failed to clinch, thus opening up the chances they won't win. (Although if this simulation were weighted by team rating, the chance would be almost zero.) Rangers came very, very close to clinching a European place. If a 1-in-3700 sequence of events happens in the league, and Hearts wins the Cup, they're left out. Aberdeen's defeat of Kilmarnock put them in the driver's seat for the 3rd slot and guaranteed Europe. Hibs' draw left them slipping out of the European places, and Hearts loss means that the Cup is almost certainly the only way they get into Europe.

[This post was updated after I discovered a coding error that made slight changes in the probabilities.]

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