Saturday, August 08, 2020

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2019/20 Knockout Round Review

Well, Rangers lost to Bayer Leverkeusen on Thursday, ending Scotland's presence in Europe. Perhaps more importantly, Olympiakos went out, so Greece can't catch Scotland. Scotland is ensured of finishing no lower than 15th. (They will get 14th unless Basil wins the Europa league, which Fivethirtyeight gives a 4% chance of happening.)

I think Scotland has earned the right for us to look at 1-18, rather than just a thin band around them. Note that only five nations have earned more points so far this year than Scotland.

So that guarantees Champions League berths for the two teams that finish atop the Premiership this season, presumably Celtic and Rangers. The Scottish Cup winner (or third-place team if one of the top wins the Cup) goes to the Europa League, and the third- and fourth-placed teams (or fourth- and fifth- if as above) go to the new Europa Conference League.

Well, now that Scotland is not longer participating in European football, we have our traditional long break until the 2020/21 Champions League first-round draw, which is...tomorrow? Oh, dear. Well, then I will leave you with a look at where the nations stand entering this season.

Denmark starts below Scotland, but could move above it based on Copenhagen's performance in this season', last season', the 2020/21 Europa League. Switzerland can't catch up. I am keeping the band around Scotland a little wider this season, as the important thing is to avoid the drop below 15th.

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