Friday, September 18, 2020

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2020/21 Third-Round Preview

All four made it through to the Europa League third round (Motherwell barely), so let's preview where the third round and possible playoff round have us headed.

The Coefficient

Still the same 10-16 neighborhood within 4 points of Scotland. They gained a little bit on Ukraine in the race for 12th.

There's not a lot of movement this year, because of the reduced maximum points (0.75 instead of 1) for a club winning and a guaranteed parting gift of at least 0.25 for clubs that lose.

In order to keep rising, Scotland needs both halves of the Old Firm to progress to the group stage. In order to tread water, they need one half. If either of the other sides makes it through to the playoff round, I consider that a bonus.


Celtic (ELO 1629), as expected, return to action against Riga (ELO 1203). That should be an easy win, but away matches are tricky, especially in this weird year. If they make it through, they face the winners between Bosnian champions Sarajevo (ELO 1272) and Montenegrin champions Budućnost Podgorica (ELO 1098). It's a clear path if they can take advantage of it, but they will be away again.


Rangers (ELO 1607) blasted Lincoln Red Imps 5-0, to set up a showdown with Willem II (ELO 1468). They should win, but it probably won't be easy. If they take care of business in the Netherlands, they host the winner of Galatasaray (ELO 1522) and Hadjuk Split (ELO 1460). Definitely possible, but not as easy of a path as Celtic.


Motherwell (ELO 1303) needed penalties to see off Coleraine, which meant they missed out on 0.125 for the coefficient in the process. They now face Hapoel Be'er Sheva (ELO 1382). It's not a definite loss, but it is likely. If they sneak through, they host the winner of APOEL (ELO 1590) and Zrinjiski Mostar (ELO 1276). That doesn't make group stage likely, but again, this is a weird year.


Aberdeen (ELO 1422) took care of Viking FK, but face another road match at Sporting CP (ELO 1614). A win there means they face either LASK (ELO 1636) or  Dunajská (ELO 1363). The Aberdonians definitely face the hardest path of any Scottish side.

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