We have group stage! For two clubs!
🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆
Just like last year! And the year before that!
The Coefficient
What I take from this is that Scotland is firmly entrenched with two Champions League spots for 2022/23. In other words, to drop below 15th, they would need to be caught not only by Denmark and Cyprus (difficult when each nation only has 1 team left in Europe), but one other nation would need to make up more than 4.5 points in the group stage and beyond.
In fact, let us set aside anything even as unlikely as Scotland being caught by Denmark or themselves catching Austria. What is at stake for the coefficient in the group stage?
Scotland, by holding on to 13th, would have their champion enter the Champions League no earlier than the third qualifying round, and likely the playoff round. If they could make it to 12th, they would guarantee that playoff round slot, and one of their Europa Conference League teams would get to enter into that competition's third qualifying round, instead of the second. If they make it to 11th, they would likely (but not guaranteed) go straight into the Champions League group stages.
(The "likely"s in the above are if the Champions League winner qualifies for the Champions League group stages another way -- that was true of seven of this year's quarterfinalists, including the eventual winner. There are other weird things that could happen, because UEFA.)
Using Fivethirtyeight's match predictions, we expect Scotland to gain 3 points in the group stage, while Turkey gets 1 point, and Ukraine gets 2.5. That would put Scotland barely ahead of Ukraine, and probably not settle things if some clubs go on to the knockout rounds. I guess my summary would be, expect Turkey to fade, and despite Ukraine's three teams, two of them being in the Champions League means more losses are expected there.
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