Sunday, December 19, 2004

Scenario

Well, now that the early games are over, I can more easily sketch the scenario under which the Redskins make the playoffs. I'm not sure if this is the only way they can make the playoffs (it may be), but this is what they need...


  • The Redskins win their remaining 2 games.
  • Either Seattle or St. Louis loses the rest of their games.
  • The Giants lose one of their remaining two games.
  • Whoever wins the Tampa Bay-New Orleans game today has to lose one of their remaining two games.
  • Carolina loses one of their two remaining games.


In an earlier version of this post, I left out Carolina, and computed the probability that the Skins would make the playoffs, assuming each game is a 50/50 proposition. The probability drops a little bit once I do this (ahem) correctly, but the fact remains that if the Skins win out, they have a 12.9% chance of making the playoffs. Not high, but not bad for a 5-9 team. That probability should go up after St. Louis loses to Arizona today.

Disclaimer: Of course, the Skins don't deserve to make the playoffs after the season they've had. Still, it amuses me to figure out the possibilities.

[Update: St. Louis did lose. New Orleans won. The scenario simplifies to:

  • The Redskins win their remaining 2 games.
  • Either Seattle or St. Louis loses the rest of their games.
  • The Giants lose one of their remaining two games.
  • The winner of the final week's Carolina-New Orleans game has to lose next week.


So in order for the Redskins to be eliminated next week, one of the following things has to happen.

  • The Redskins lose.
  • Both Seattle and St. Louis win.
  • Both Carolina and New Orleans win.]
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