Scottish Football: Four Matches to Go

Since I wrote this crude simulation of the remainder of the Scottish Premiership (top half only), I thought I'd indicate where things stand after the first set of post-split fixtures:

1. Celtic 99.6% Rangers 0.2% Aberdeen 0.2%
2. Rangers 49.9% Aberdeen 39.0% Hibs 10.7% Celtic 0.4%
3. Aberdeen 39.2% Rangers 35.8% Hibs 24.8% Kilmarnock 1.1%
4. Hibs 61.9% Aberdeen 21.5% Rangers 13.9% Kilmarnock 2.6% 
5. Kilmarnock 96.0% Hibs 2.6% Hearts 1.2% Rangers 0.1% Aberdeen 0.1%
6. Hearts 98.8% Kilmarnock 1.2%

So basically, by beating Celtic, Hibs all but assured itself of a European slot assuming Celtic win the Cup. Kilmarnock all but played itself out of Europe, and Aberdeen and Rangers stayed on track for the two slots not dependent on the Cup outcome.

Scottish Football: More European Speculation

Before the Scottish Cup semi-finals, I posted some subjective odds for who the Scottish representatives will be in Europe. Now that we know the finalists (Celtic and Motherwell), I thought I should make the odds a little more objective. Let's make a bunch of questionable assumptions:

• All teams have equal chances. (Probably true-ish if you ignore Celtic.)
• Each match (except the Scottish Cup final) has a 1/3 chance of ending in a draw.
• All non-draws have a goal differential of 1.
• If two teams are tied on points and goal differential, the team that is currently ahead will stay ahead.

These are all bad, but probably not too bad. Let's code this up and see what happens. I'm going to do some rounding to make things make a little more sense.

Celtic:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 99.95%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in second round: 0.025%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in first round: 0.025%.
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 0%.

Rangers:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0.025%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in second round: 24%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in first round: 65%.
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 11%.

Aberdeen:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0.025%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in second round: 19%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in first round: 57%.
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 14%.

Hibs:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in second round: 6%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in first round: 45%.
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 49%.

Kilmarnock:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in second round: 0.4%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in first round: 10%.
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 90%.

Hearts:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in second round: 0%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in first round: 0.007%.
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 99.993%.

Motherwell:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in second round: 50%.
• Chance of entering Europa League in first round: 0%
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 50%

Another way of looking at it, here are the projected finishes:

1. Celtic 100%
2. Rangers 48% Aberdeen 39% Hibs 12% Kilmarnock 1%
3. Aberdeen 39% Rangers 34% Hibs 24% Kilmarnock 3% 
4. Hibs 49% Aberdeen 21% Rangers 15% Kilmarnock 14% Hearts 0.02%
5. Kilmarnock 79% Hibs 14% Aberdeen 3% Hearts 2% Rangers 2%
6. Hearts 98% Kilmarnock 2% Hibs 0.04%

Scottish Football: European Speculation

With the final four of the Scottish Cup set, it's time once again for me to look forward to the Scottish entries in the upcoming European competitions. I'll use the same format as last year.

 Celtic

Chance of playing in Europe: 100% (Maybe 99.999%.)
Path to Europe: Last year, I said, "In the amazingly unlikely event that they lost all further matches, there is no way Aberdeen wins enough to catch them." This year, if they lost all further matches, Aberdeen and Rangers would probably catch them. But a third-place finish would still net the Europa League. And they are still overwhelming favorites (Fivethirtyeight just says >99%) to win the league. And probably the Scottish Cup.
How happy we should be if they're in Europe: Copy/paste from last year: Very. They are the only Scottish side structured to make some noise in the Champions League.
Managerial outlook:  Good, although it's not unrealistic to see Brendan Rogers being lured away.

Rangers

Chance of playing in Europe: 90%
Path to Europe: Well, they can hold onto their second-place position, drop to third, drop to fourth and have Motherwell not win the Scottish Cup, or drop below fourth and win the Scottish Cup. One of those is very likely to happen.
How happy we should be if they're in Europe: Quite. Hopefully they've put the dysfunction behind them that caused an early exit from Europe last year.
Managerial outlook: Medium. Their caretaker manager has been doing okay, but maybe not well enough to land the job long-term. They need not to make another mistake.

Aberdeen

Chance of playing in Europe: 90%
Path to Europe: See Rangers. Aberdeen is only two points behind Rangers, with a game in hand, so they are practically tied.
How happy we should be if they're in Europe: Quite. Even though they "only" got 2.5 points last year, they and Celtic are the only two Scottish sides to have more than that over the past five years.
Managerial outlook: Good. After Derek McInnes turned down Rangers, he seems to be set to stay in Aberdeen a bit longer. They've struggled somewhat in the last half of this season, but he should guide them well in Europe.

Hibernian

Chance of playing in Europe: 75%
Path to Europe: Stay in fourth place and Motherwell doesn't win the Scottish Cup, or move up.
How happy we should be if they're in Europe: Happy. Neil Lennon knows what he's doing; he even picked up points for Scotland two years ago with a second-tier side.
Managerial outlook: Good. Lennon is a veteran, but his name has not come up in coaching searches elsewhere.

Kilmarnock

Chance of playing in Europe: 30%
Path to Europe: Move up to fourth, Motherwell doesn't win the Cup or move up to third.
How happy we should be if they're in Europe: Not very. Steve Clarke has done an amazing job with them this season, but they don't have the resources to compete in Europe.
Managerial outlook: Good. Clarke has done an amazing turnaround, but I would not be surprised to see him get snapped up by a bigger club (e.g. Rangers).

Motherwell

Chance of playing in Europe: 10%
Path to Europe: Win the Cup.
How happy we should be if they're in Europe: Not at all. Not only do they not have the resources, they are currently sitting seventh in the Premiership, which means a Cup win will probably be a bit of a fluke.
Managerial outlook: I don't know anything about it.

Hearts (and everybody else)

Chance of playing in Europe: 5%
Path to Europe: Turn on the afterburners and end up in fourth at the end of the season.
How happy we should be if they're in Europe: Not very. Though Hearts has resources, they disappointed in the league since returning to the top flight, and they have been (wisely) limiting their on-pitch spending while they renovate their stadium.
Managerial outlook: Mostly good. Craig Levein is doing pretty well in his second stint as Hearts manager -- he did end Celtic's unbeaten streak. On the other hand, he let Kilmarnock pass them for fourth.

Geocaching Update: Busy Winter 2018

I called Fall busy after finding "42 caches in 5 states and one foreign country," so I guess I'll call Winter busy after finding 35 caches in four states. And I'll call in 2018, even though two of those caches were found at the end of 2017.

On New Year's Eve, I found caches in Manassas and Manassas Park, where were Counties (county equivalents) 53 and 54. That also earned me the "Last Cache of 2017" souvenir (Souvenir 39).

I finished up 2017 with 80 caches found, which is second only to 2016's 134.

So of course, 2018 opened up the next day with the "First Cache of 2018" souvenir (Souvenir 40).

January's trip to San Diego enabled me to nab seven caches, including my first from December 2013 (Month 155), August 2008 (Month 156) and November 2005 (Month 157).

Back in Virginia, I found 3 more, including a challenge cache that was my first difficulty/terrain combo 4/5 (Combo 30) and one from December 2013 (Month 158). It required finding caches in 10 countries, not including Puerto Rico. My December trip to Hong Kong let me claim this one.

February saw another trip to California, with only two caches found. The first was a 5/2 D/T challenge (Combo 31) from March 2014 (Month 159). That completes the year 2014 for me, joining 2002 and 2016. Here the challenge was to find caches at all distances from home listed on the web site (e.g., one less than a mile from home, one 1-10 miles from home, etc.) The cache owner sent me a message expressing surprise that I had met the challenge with so few total caches.

The second was an oldie, from March 2001 (Month 160). It was the third-oldest cache I found.

I then found a virtual at Mount Vernon from October 2001 (Month 161). It was the eight-oldest cache I have found.

After that, the next cache I found was right near work. I was getting in my car to go home when I got the alert, so I knew I would get the First-to-Find (FTF). Unfortunately, there was a little drama there, since I accidentally signed the bottom of the log, and others did not notice and claimed FTF after signing the top of the log. Fortunately, it was all straightened out, and I had FTF #14. That also gave me February 2018 (Month 162).

I found another one in Maryland from November 2017 (Month 163) and one in Virginia (no milestones achieved) before heading out on my most epic day of caching yet.

 Yep. Eleven caches in a day. Many cachers do hundreds, or even a thousand (somehow), but this was my record. Further, I did it on a road trip to Tennessee, allowing me to pick up 10 new counties (Counties 55-64).

(I found two in Salem, Virginia.) On that day, I found caches from February 2009 (Month 164), August 2007 (Month 165), May 2010 (Month 166) and January 2009 (Month 167). In planning the trip, I used an on-line tool that allowed me to find caches from unfound months.

Here are some pictures from logs on that day's caches.

The next-to-last cache of the day was an interesting case. It had gotten dark, but sometimes it's possible to grab a quick cache at a rest stop. I stopped at the Tennessee Welcome Center, and there were a few. I opted for one on the northern edge of the welcome center.

Surprise! The northern few feet of the Tennessee Welcome Center appear to be in Virginia, so this counted as my first cache in Washington County, Virginia.

On the drive back, I found caches in Bristol (County 65), Washington County (turned out to be my second one, but I did not know it yet), and Pulaski County (County 66). Now at 21 Virginia counties!

Back in Maryland, I found two more, including one I was second-to-find on in March 2018 (Month 168).

Only missing 47 months makes me feel like I'm closing in on this challenge, although I'm sure the fact that 10 of them are from the first 14 months of geocaching will make things quite difficult.

Where's Jon? Hong Kong Edition

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There I am!

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: Knockout Round Review

What's that, you say? The knockout round isn't over? Well, it is if you aren't one of the top 13 countries in Europe. (Hats off, Czech Republic.)

As you can see, Scotland's 2018 ranking ended up 26th (or tied for 26th -- it doesn't matter). That includes the five-year period ending in 2018. Their 4.0 points for the year put them in a three-way tie for 23rd.

Celtic contributed 3.125 of those 4 points. That's the best Celtic performance over the five-year span, so blame the other clubs.

Celtic picked up 0.5 for the coefficient by winning the first leg of their Round-of-32 matchup, and got knocked out by losing the return leg by a bigger margin. That pushed them into a tie with Belarus.

The access list for 2018/19 is out. As expected, nations ranked 17-24 are treated the same, as well as those ranked 25-51 (that are not Liechtenstein).  So 16 to 17 and 24 to 25 are the only transitions that Scotland needs to keep an eye on.

Good news, 2018/19 uses the previous year's ranking, so at #23, Scotland won't have their cup winner enter until the second round of Europa League qualifying. For 2019/20, that'll be the first round, however. I will have more on who is likely to represent Scotland in Europe once the Scottish Cup semi-finals are set. Suffice it to say, however, that for the first time in a long time, the five biggest Scottish clubs are the top five in the league table, promising some well-funded European squads. (If that holds up, it will be the first time in 13 years that those five have held the top five slots).

Scotland starts out the 2019 rankings in 25th place. I include the rankings up to 16th to show how out of reach that is for next year. But a good showing by multiple clubs could bring them up a few rankings and position them to make a move in future years.

2017 Stay-At-Home Bowl: Congrats, Kansas City

It has come time to see if there is a winner of the 2017 Stay-At-Home Bowl, the dubious honor I bestow on any NFL team that has beaten both Super Bowl participants.

The 20th winner of the Stay-At-Home Bowl is the Kansas City Chiefs, who defeated New England and Philadelphia in the first two weeks of the season, perhaps the high point of their season. This is their second win in three years. They join the Chargers (1979, 1980), Cowboys (1980, 1996), Dolphins (1985, 1993) and Seahawks (1986, 2016) as two-time winners. There are no three-time winners, yet.

Last year's winner, Seattle, missed the playoffs, so only 11 of the 19 previous winners made the playoffs the following year. Still better than random!

Geocaching Update: Busy Fall 2017

I last posted about geocaching after my trip to Tennessee, which took place at the end of (astronomical) summer. Now, three months later, we've past the winter solstice, so it's a good time so summarize all the geocaching fun I've had since then.

In that time span, I have found 42 caches in 5 states and one foreign country, so let's see how they add up.

Well, in that time span, I've had my busiest and third-busiest days.

Also, my busiest weekend and week.

I hit three states in a day by taking advantage of the nexus of where Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland meet. West Virginia was State 14 for me, and Washington County, Maryland was County 37. Jefferson County, West Virginia was County 38.

Fauquier County and Alexandria City in Virginia got Counties 39 and 40.

I had my 13th FTF in October.

A trip to Maine (as well as finding a cache in Virginia before leaving) broke my maximum distance in a day record.

Maine was a new state (State 15), and also allowed me to get five counties in a day. This actually broke my record set previously in the Maine trip of four in a day. All in all, I hit eight new counties on the Maine trip (Counties 41-48).

By the way, that puts me in a 6-way tie for 6th of the most counties found in Maine by a cacher from Maryland. (According to their algorithm, I'm still from Maryland because of where I have found most of my caches.)

I found three caches in Hong Kong (Country 11). I am only one of seven cachers in Maryland to find a cache in more than one region of Hong Kong.

A trip to California added four new counties (Counties 49-52). I am now tied for #31 in most counties found in California (8) by a Marylander.

I found caches placed in October 2013 (in Virginia), August 2009 (Virginia), September 2001 (Virginia), December 2003 (Virginia), June 2010 (West Virginia), August 2017 (Maryland), October 2017 (Maryland), August 2003 (Maine), March 2012 (Maine), February 2013 (Maine), December 2014 (Maine), April 2014 (Hong Kong), and December 2017 (Maryland).

Now at 154 placed months, 58 missing months.

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: Knockout-Round Preview

Good news for Scotland: there's a knockout round to preview this year! Bad news for Scotland: Celtic got there with the minimum number of possible points.

Bad news: they've fallen to 27th! Good news: can't fall more than one more spot!

Group Stage Review

I gave a series of analyses in my group stage preview. Let's see how I did.

• Romania: "expect them to widen then 1.05 gap with Scotland." It's now 1.925, so yes.
• Azerbaijan: "They could well be shut out of further points." They were!
• Scotland: "one could dream of picking up 1.25 more in the group." Dream denied! They picked up 0.5 with a win over Anderlecht. One-goal losses to Anderlecht and Bayern indicate more points were not out of the question.
• Belarus: "BATE Borisov...only have a 14% chance of advancing, but they should pick up enough points...to keep Belarus close to or ahead of Scotland." They did not, in fact, advance, but picked up a full point.
• Sweden: "Scotland's lead of 0.15 is more likely than not to hold up." Wrong! Two points, and into the knockout round.
• Bulgaria: "The 0.25 lead Scotland has over Bulgaria could evaporate quickly." It did!
• Norway: " I think the 1.2 point gap is safe." It was, but shrunk to 0.7.
• Kazakhstan: "At 1.5, the gap is probably even safer [than with Norway]." Maybe not safer, but it held up.

I'll note that Serbia has unexpectedly pulled ahead (more on that later), which just goes to show how important it is for a nation to field two teams which can be competitive in Europe, rather than just one.

Round of 32 Preview

I'll hopefully title this as a preview for just the next round, since Scotland could be competing beyond that. In fact, Fivethirtyeight basically gives them a 1-in-3 chance of advancing past Zenit St. Petersburg, while Clubelo gives them a 1-in-4 chance.

Probably the best-case scenario is advancing with 0.5 points for the coefficient (1.0 is possible, but Scottish clubs seem only to advance by the skin of their teeth). The expect scenario is drawing one of the games to get 0.25, and the worst-case is flaming out with 0.0.

Where We Stand

They're 27th now. Blech. Unless a miracle happens, all the Scottish clubs get a first-round entry in 2019.

Any nation can get at most 1 point from this round, so Scotland could theoretically end up tied for 24th or as low at 28th. All of the clubs left representing nations in the 20s are underdogs, but expect the two Serbian clubs to do a little bit better (combined) than Celtic, so I would bet on staying at 27th. But, y'know, if Celtic wins all remaining matches, they end up 18th. (Spoiler: they won't.)

Note that Celtic have already equaled their point total from last year, so if Scotland stays in 27th place, blame other clubs. (They'd be in 25th with an equal contribution from the non-Celtics.)

Country 33: Hong Kong

My slow climb towards membership in the Travelers Century Club continues, as I added Hong Kong this month. If I had planned better, I could have made it to 34, as Macau was an hour away by hydrofoil. Oh, look, Macau is a World Heritage Site. Sigh.

Bowie Restaurant Project: (98) Pho D'Lite

Pho D'Lite,
6840 Race Track Rd,
Most Recent Foursquare Check-in: 9/30/2017
Total Foursquare Check-ins:2
Pre-Foursquare Visits: No
Rating: 3.5 out of 5 stars

Welcome to the latest entry in the now-defunct but still-breathing Bowie Restaurant Project.

It's pho. In Bowie. That's novel. There are actually 3 different places to get pho not too far from Bowie, if you're willing to head up north around Route 3. I don't know that I'd say that Pho D'Lite is any better or worse than Saigon Noodle House, Pho Golden (which I actually haven't visited), or V N Noodle House. But it's here! In Bowie!

In general, any restaurant in this space has a high bar to clear to get me to visit rather than Chesapeake Grille. But after a less than ideal last visit there, and the sense that pho is so completely different, I was able to convince myself to head there.

Anyway, if you're in the mood for a big bowl of Vietnamese noodles, you've come to the right place.

Geocaching Tennessee

As noted in my previous post, I went to Tennessee recently. This was an opportunity to find some geocaches and generate some geocaching stats.

My first stop on the day of the trip was a geocache near Dulles airport (and my kids' school) that I had been saving for this occasion. It was easy to find, and it set me up to break my maximum per-day distance record, a task that eluded me last year. As a reminder, this is the old record:

I had the chance to break a few more personal records. I could have driven to Kentucky after landing, to get 3 states in a day, but seeing the World Heritage Site seemed more interesting. I could have found a cache near the hotel after checking in, to get 4 counties in a day, but I was tired, and I figure I will save that record for the next trip.

The Knoxville airport is in a different county from Knoxville itself. Rather than stop right by the airport, I drove to nearby Maryville College. My grandfather spent a year there, and played on their 1932 JV football team. It was a nice place to stop, and there I found a geocache. It was my first September 2016 geocache. That completed 2016 for me, and gave me Month 141 (still at 68 missing months because of the addition of September 2017), State 13, and County 34 (Blount County).

After that, it was off to the Great Smoky Mountains. There was a virtual cache there at the John Ownby Cabin. That is in Sevier County, County 35 for me.

And there's a new maximum distance!

The next day, on my way back from lunch to the conference, I found a cache on campus, giving me Knox County, County 36.

World Heritage Update: Great Smoky Mountains

Last weekend, on a trip to Tennessee, I visited Great Smoky Mountains National Park, a World Heritage Site. This was the 62nd World Heritage Site I've visited.

I went to the Sugarlands visitors center and hiked a short trail.

Since my phone captures everywhere I go, this is what it looked like. My phone knew (though I didn't) that I hiked to the John Ownby Cabin and back.

I couldn't tell at the time what made this more special than other National Parks and thus worthy of being a World Heritage Site. It turns out it's the biodiversity, so it makes sense that doesn't jump out at me. (Though I did see some nice trees.)

This is the first site I've visited since I was in Brussels almost two years ago. None of the sites inscribed in 2016 or 2017 were ones I had already visited, so my percentage has dipped from the all-time high of 5.92% sites visited in 2015 to 5.78%.

I don't have any more visits I can see coming soon, and the Frank Lloyd Wright Buildings won't make it in before 2019, so I don't see a path to 6% right now. But you never know!

Google Local: 1 Million Views

Well, like a video game that is fun until it gets too easy, the challenge of getting to a million views of my photos kinda bored me once I got a good engine going where I got lots of views (somehow I got 139.9K views this past week). I still upload pictures from time to time, but I lack the enthusiasm I had before.

Still, it was nice to receive a congratulatory e-mail from Google, particularly since I had conceived of this challenge myself.

Here are my top 10 photo locations. Most of the pictures themselves are in previous posts with this label.

1. Michaels, Bowie, MD, 61,341 views.
2. Office Depot, Bowie, MD, 59,218 views.
3. Dollar Tree, Bowie, MD, 52,977 views.
4. DICK's Sporting Goods, Gambrills, MD, 48,058 views.
5. Harris Teeter, Bowie, MD, 46,854 views.
6. Safeway, Gambrills, MD, 44,852 views.
7. Safeway, Reston, VA, 39,070 views.
8. Arby's, Beltsville, MD, 38,849 views.
9. Dollar Tree, Chantilly, VA, 36,402 views.
10. Michaels, Vienna, VA, 35,598.

For some reason, pictures in Maryland seem to have done better than pictures in Virginia (they have more views despite being newer). And boring old chain stores rule the roost. The most-popular photo I have that's not of a chain store is #16, Jumping Jack Sports (an indoor kiddie play space).

And I'm still enjoying the free Google Play Music for another couple of weeks.

Geocaching Update: Two Per Month

I was too busy this summer to find any more than six geocaches (two each month), but I have some hopes for the fall.

The first June cache that I found was in the tree pictured above. The more I think about this one, the more I liked it. It combines "nature" with "easy to access". It was also my first November 2010 cache, keeping me at 68 missing months (since I didn't have June 2017 yet).

The second June cache I found was a less than exciting one in a parking lot.

The first July cache I found was also one I was FTF (first-to-find) on. It's less than half a mile from my office, so I should have had a good chance at it.

Here's the satellite image of it. Yep, it's on that sign there. (I was going to use Google Street View, but in the 2012 picture, the sign is still under construction.) Someone else showed up while I was poking around, but I was the one who spotted the cache perched up there, and I was the one who tore a (small) hole in my pants climbing up there. That gave me July 2017, and kept me at 68 missing months.

It was my 12th FTF.

My second July cache was very close to the first. I was not in my office at the time it was listed, so I missed the FTF.

My first August cache was in Ellicott City. I was present shopping, and I looked for nearby caches. This one was interesting, at least for my stats! It was a June 2017 cache, keeping me at 68 missing months. It was my first at N 39° 15', giving me my 17th minute of 39 North. It was my first at W 76° 48', giving me my 32nd minute of 76 West. I actually have 32 of the 33 westernmost minutes in that degree of latitude, missing only W 76° 48'. I have one scouted out for that minute, then I guess it's off to the Eastern Shore to make more progress on that challenge.

My second August cache was unremarkable, but it was a nice pick-me-up to find it on a day I needed cheering up.

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: Group Stage Preview

Hey! It's the still Champions League!

Playoff-Round Review

Celtic all but clinched their participation in the Champions League group stage with a 5-0 win at home. But then they lost on the road 4-3. It didn't "matter", but there went 0.25 for the coefficient for the next five years. Still, with the bonus for group stage qualification, that was 1.25 more for this year's coefficient.

Group-Stage Preview

Let's look at the Clubelo rankings of Celtic's group. There's #3 (Bayern Munich), #8 (Paris St. Germain), #65 (Anderlecht) and #90 (Celtic). Incredibly, this is not as tough a road as last year, when Celtic faced teams from the three top leagues in Europe. Celtic has been scrappy enough to pick up draws at home from even the best teams in the world, and Anderlecht shouldn't scare them, even on the road. (Sadly, the reverse is true.) So it wouldn't be impossible to imagine 3 draws and 1 win netting a third-place finish for Celtic, which would drop them into the elimination phase of the Europa League. In fact, 14 years ago, Celtic ended up in group with...uh...Anderlecht, Bayern Munich and a French team, and ended up third. So one could dream of picking up 1.25 more in the group, and even more by making a Europa League run.

FiveThirtyEight

The American web site FiveThirtyEight has expanded their soccer coverage to include the Scottish Premiership. I find this mildly cool (currently second-place Celtic are 81% favorites to win the league...seems low). But what really helps us out is the coverage of the Champions League, and yes, the Europa League, so I can analyze how likely other nations are to get points for their coefficients.

Where We Stand

We (they) stand 23rd. Despite the awful start for Scottish teams, their 3 point so far look pretty respectable compared to other countries in their neighborhood. The problem is moving out of that neighborhood...

I tend to show a window of countries within 2 points of Scotland. Right now, that's 21-28. That means there's more downside than upside, particularly with many of these teams in the easier Europa League group stage. Let's take them one-by-one.

21. Romania. Despite starting with five teams in Europe, they're down to one, and in the Europa League. Steaua has a 55% percent chance of advancing from the group, according to FiveThirtyEight, so expect them to widen then 1.05 gap with Scotland. Still, any points they get are divided by 5 rather then 4, so they will not be too far ahead.

22. Azerbaijan. They are having a better year than Scotland, but like everyone else in the neighborhood, they are down to one team. Garabag (or however you spell it) is the lowest-rated team in Champions League play. Fivethirtyeight gives them only a 3% chance of even finishing third. They could well be shut out of further points, and a decent performance by Celtic could pass them.

23. Celtic, while distinct underdogs, is listed as a 4% chance of finishing second and 43% to finish third. That's almost a 50/50 chance of advancing!

24. Belarus. They have the same number of points as Scotland. I'm not sure what the tie-breaker is here. BATE Borisov is in Europa League play, where they are severely outclassed by Arsenal and Koln. They only have a 14% chance of advancing, but they should pick up enough points from Red Star Belgrade to keep Belarus close to or ahead of Scotland.

25. Sweden. Osterund is another team out of its depth in its Europa League group, between Bilbao and Hertha. But even the Ukranian side Zorya should outperform them -- they have an 8% chance of advancing, so Scotland's lead of 0.15 is more likely than not to hold up.

26. Bulgaria. Ludogorets Razgrad has a decent shot -- 29% -- at their group. Hoffenheim is the clear class, but neither Braga nor Istanbul should scare them too much. The 0.25 lead Scotland has over Bulgaria could evaporate quickly.

27. Norway. After Celtic bounced Rosenborg down to the Europa League, they still have the opportunity to pick up points. In this case, mostly against the Macedonian side Vardar, because Zenit St. Petersburg and Real Sociedad should deny them, as long as they take Europa League play seriously. I think the 1.2 point gap is safe; Fivethirtyeight gives a 21% chance for them to advance.

28. Kazakhstan. Astana is another side Celtic bounced from the Champions League, and another side with a 21% chance of advancing. At 1.5, the gap is probably even safer.

My Top Five In-Person Sports Moments

I heard the hosts of a sports podcast recently talk about the five most important sports moments they had experienced. I decided to tweak it a little to count only ones I had attended in person. That made it a lot harder to come up with five, because "largest Redskins regular-season comeback to date" isn't quite a memory for the ages. So here they are, in chronological order.

September 14, 1991: Michigan fans know it as "The Catch" but the rest of the country reserves that for a pro moment. Still, Sally Jenkins wrote an entire Sports Illustrated column about it.

November 23, 1991: Desmond Howard does the "Heisman Pose" after a punt return against Ohio State. More than 20 years later, he was the star of a Cheez-It ad campaign about this, so I guess it stuck in the collective consciousness. This was in the opposite end zone, so I don't have as visceral of a memory as the Notre Dame catch.

April 14, 1996: This was the only round of golf I've spectated in my entire life, and it was at least in the top three chokes in golf history.

August 1, 1996: The U.S. women's soccer team wins its first gold medal. Attending the Olympics on a graduate student's income, I could only afford one gold medal event, and I wanted it to be one where the Star Spangled Banner would likely be played. $50 well-spent.

January 6, 2013: It wasn't pleasant, but watching star rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III destroy his knee in the franchise's first home playoff game of the century was definitely a Redskins turning point.

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: Playoff-Round Preview

Why is it the playoff round and not the fourth round? Who can say?

Third-Round Review

Celtic made it through, but not without making it interesting. Having your top two strikers out makes it hard to generate goals. It is even harder if, as Brendan Rogers says, there's not enough challenge in the Scottish league to justify recruiting a third top striker. So Celtic settled for a goalless draw at home. before pulling out a 1-0 win on the road. 0.375 for the coefficient.

It was always going to be tough for Aberdeen to make it through, but a 2-1 victory at home gave hope. A 2-0 loss on the road dashed those hopes, but they bow out with 0.25 for the coefficient in this round and 0.625 overall. This is their fourth third-round exit in a row, and it only generated fewer points because this was the first time they entered in the second round.

Playoff-Round Preview

Well, it's down to Celtic, who drew Astana. They squeaked by Astana in the third-round last year, so they should be favored, but not by much. Indeed, Clubelo gives Celtic a 74.7% chance of advancing.

Celtic lucked out, to a certain extent. Of the 20 teams in the playoff round, Celtic has the #14 Elo. Astana is #19. (Maribor, despite being 20th, is seeded, so Celtic could not have faced them.)

I'm not sure whether it's better for the coefficient in the short term to end up in the Champions League, with the bonus points but a really rough group stage ahead, or the Europa League, where the group games are much more winnable. But Celtic really needs the TV money to compete in future years, so Scotland fans should be rooting for victory. Let's say getting through with at least 0.375 for the coefficient will be positive, and dropping to the Europa League will be negative.

Where We Stand

Despite Aberdeen's exit, things aren't looking too shabby. We have 1.750 for the coefficient so far. Last year, we had 2.375 at this point. Having 0.625 less is not ideal, but Celtic ended up garnering 2.0 more from this point forward. If they do that again, Scotland would end up at 3.750 for the year, which would give it its best back-to-back years in a decade.

And, since this is the point to dream, how could Celtic do better? Well, they could sweep the playoff round, instead of splitting last year. And they could luck into a weak Champions League group instead of an incredibly strong one, and do better than three draws.

Consider last year's FC Copenhagen side. They got a win and a draw in the playoff, before being drawn into a group with Leicester City, Brugge and FC Porto, where they went 2-1-3, good enough for third place. That dropped them into the Europa League knockout phase, where they advanced over Ludogorets Razgrad before losing to Ajax (while still notching a win). From the playoff forward, they notched 3.375 for Denmark. So that's the maximum realistic upside, I think.

Another thing playing in Scotland's favor is looking at their coefficient neighborhood, which now includes leagues 22-29. Only Serbia has two entrants left, and they are a full 2 points behind Scotland. Belarus, Sweden, Bulgaria, Norway and Serbia are all out of the Champions League, so they won't get the bonus points for hitting the group stage -- and they could even miss the Europa League group stage.

So going into the group stage ranked 22nd isn't out of the question -- or 23rd if both Celtic and the Azerbaijani champions do well. A loss, however, would see Celtic passed by Kazakhstan and possibly even Norway.

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: Third-Round Preview

Well, that went about as well as could be expected.

Second-Round Review

Celtic dispatched Linfield as handily as you would think -- 2-0 in the away leg, and 4-0 in the home leg. I guess some might have expected even more lopsided scores, but a win's a win, and this was two wins and 0.5 for the coefficient. Also, this guarantees Celtic a place in the playoff round of either the Champions League or Europa League.

Aberdeen unexpectedly struggled to a 1-1 draw at home, meaning they needed at least one away goal to make it through. Midway through the second half, they had none, but they came up with two in rapid succession to progress. 0.375 for the coefficient, and they progress. We could quibble with the dropped 0.125 at home, but let's not.

Third-Round Preview

Celtic face the Norwegian champions, Rosenborg. I have to admit, I like the qualifying better than the group-stage, where 15 out of the 32 teams are not actually league champions. Here, however, you have the Scottish champions facing the Norwegian champions. The Scottish champions got there after defeating the Northern Irish champions, who defeated the Sammarinese champions. The Norwegian champions defeated the Irish champions.

Celtic's Elo is 1596, Rosenborg's 1501. It shouldn't be a blowout, but Celtic should win comfortably. Not getting the full 0.5 for the coefficient would be a little bit of a disappointment, but the main thing is making it through. (Clubelo gives Celtic a 65.3% chance of advancing, but that seems a little low.)

Aberdeen is up against Cypriot side Apollon Limassol, the 3rd place Cypriot club (and cup winners). Aberdeen has an Elo of 1393, Apollon Limassol 1444. Clubelo gives this a 57.5% chance to go to the Cypriots. I have hope that this is Aberdeen's year to break through to the playoff round. So let's say any result that sees Aberdeen advancing is good, and exiting without picking up any points is bad.

Where We Stand

Hey, Scotland moved up to 26th from 27th, so that's something. (Not a good couple of weeks for Kazakhstan.) That was my "best realistic scenario". My best realistic scenario for this round is keeping 26th, which should be even easier since Celtic should deny Norway points by beating Rosenborg. 24th is theoretically possible, but very unlikely. On the other side, a Celtic collapse would be the only thing that would let Scotland slide to 27th or 28th.

The good news is that nobody below 21st place has more than 2 teams left in European competition, which puts things on an even playing field moving forward. Sweden lost its Champions League entrant, so they may be out of Europe sooner rather than later. So I think the best case scenario is having both Scottish sides advance with 0.75-1 point, and a lot of the nations above them having only 1 side left in Europe.

How bad has this year been for Scotland's coefficient? On the one hand, the 1.125 is worse than any comparable side ranked higher than Iceland (33rd). On the other hand, last year (not a bad year!) at this stage, they had 1.875. If they picked up 1.875 this year, they would be...in 26th place (although significantly closer to 25th).

The question going forward...will this be a struggle to keep the second-round Europa League entrance due to the Scottish Cup winner (or league runner-up). (This threshhold is 24th or 26th depending on...stuff.) Or can Scotland put two teams in the group stages and move closer to 18th (which would put the Cup winner in the third round) and higher?

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: Second-Round Preview

First-Round Review

Well, that was a disaster. I was embarrassed by it, until I realized that I am not really Scottish, so I am not tainted by association.

Let's start with St. Johnstone. They should have been able to beat the Lithuanian runners-up at home, but they lost 2-1. When FK Trakai went down to 10 men in Lithuania, St. Johnstone should have been able to get two goals to win the tie. But they didn't. They should have been able to get one goal, to get 0.25 for the coefficient before exiting. But they didn't. They should have been able to prevent the shorthanded goal to salvage the minimum 0.125. But they didn't. And their manager probably shouldn't have described the Lithuanians as "technically better" after the first leg. But he did.

So, on to Rangers. I was excited when before the match, Rangers' manager explicitly mentioned the importance of doing well in order to raise up Scotland's UEFA coefficient. And then they beat Luxembourg's fourth-best team 1-0 at home. You'd think they could do better, but still, 0.25 for the coefficient and all that. Then they went to Luxembourg and not only lost, but lost 2-0, which knocked them out.

The optimistic (less pessimistic) way to look at this would be to say that Rangers, while fielding a team good enough to get third place, knew that wouldn't be good enough, so they had to blow up the roster as if they had just been promoted. The new group of players didn't have time to gel and got upset by a more cohesive squad.

The pessimistic (more pessimistic) way to look at this is that a perfectly-good third-place squad got blown up for no good reason. While that squad certainly would have been good enough to beat the fourth-best side in Luxembourg, this group of overpaid imports is not going to cut it.

Time will tell, but not in the Europa League, because that door is closed for another year.

Second-Round Preview

That leaves Aberdeen and Celtic.

Aberdeen opens things up on Thursday against Bosnia-Herzegovina's Siroki Brijeg. Aberdeen's Elo is now 1381, and Siroki Brijeg's is now 1236. Siroki Brijeg's went up for advancing from the first round, and Aberdeen's tumbled based on the St. Johnstone and Rangers results pulling down everybody in Scotland. clubelo.com lists Aberdeen as 72.7% favorites to advance. So let's say that a win and a draw, worth 0.375 for the coefficient is the target.

Celtic starts on Friday against Northern Ireland Champions Linfield. Friday is an unusual date for a Champions League match -- most will be played on Tuesday (hence why I'm rushing to get this post up). But the match was rescheduled to avoid "marching season" in Northern Ireland, which has its own set of sectarian tensions that will cause the police to have their hands full.

Speaking of sectarian tensions, Linfield is a traditionally Protestant club, and Celtic is traditionally Catholic. So while it seemed like Linfield might get a big payday from Celtic fans traveling over to see their club, Celtic told their fans to stay away. This is the sort of thing that fascinates me about European soccer that you don't get by following American sports.

Anyway, clubelo.com puts Celtic as 98.1% favorites to advance. Anything less than the full 0.5 will be an embarrassment. Though Scottish clubs are getting used to embarrassment, I think there will be enough continuity to manhandle Linfield.

Where We Stand

I said that 27th place would be the "extreme negative scenario".  Here were are in 27th. A good showing by Norway could drop Scotland down to 28th, even if the Scottish teams are perfect in this round. At this point, we have to hope that both Celtic and Aberdeen stay alive into the group stage and climb back up as other countries inevitably have some teams knocked out.

If everything breaks Scotland's way, they could be in 23rd at the end of the second round, but 26th with both clubs alive is the best realistic scenario.