Nebula Update: Man Plus

I recently finished Man Plus, the 1976 Nebula Best Novel winner. Here is my entire Goodreads review.

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Man Plus by Frederik Pohl

My rating: 3 of 5 stars


Dated, but still enjoyable.

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Anyway, it was a classic SF story that aged well, if not wonderfully. As an added bonus, you can see this classic Android's Dungeon post about getting a book signed by a somewhat confused Fred Pohl. Six Nebula winners left to go; I think that's as close as I've gotten.

World Heritage Update: 2019 Inscriptions

UNESCO has inscribed 29 new properties onto the World Heritage list, bringing the total to 1121. Of those, the only one I have visited is "The Twentieth-Century Architecture of Frank Lloyd Wright," specifically Fallingwater and the Guggenheim.

That makes it my 63rd World Heritage site. As I have not visited any of the 2018 inscriptions, my percentage falls to 5.62%. I don't see a prospect of visiting any more this year.

Geocaching: Spring 2019

I only got out geocaching three days in the Spring. But two of those days, I found four caches each, so I at least got a total of 9.

I went out at the end of March to find a high-favorite cache, because that gave me three souvenirs in the then-ongoing promotion. That got me to 62 souvenirs. I counted being at 57 last summer.  I didn't take note of a promotional souvenir I got in September, and there was a retroactive one awarded for the United States in December (previously, we only got souvenirs for individual states).

Then in April, when in Greensboro, NC, I found 4 caches while waiting for my family. That moved Guilford County, NC to #7 on the counties I've found the most caches in. One of the caches I had been unable to find on my previous visit to Greensboro due to a bug in my phone's operating system. I got a new phone, so I was able to read the signal with the cache information. That was a 4/2 difficult/terrain combo, for my 40th D/T combo.

In June, I headed out of the house and found four in Virginia while my family was wrapping Father's Day presents.

Hoping to find a few more this summer in a few more regions (but unlikely new states or countries).

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2019/20 First-Round Preview

Ah, summer, when a man's thoughts turn to Europa League qualifying. (And, OK, the Champions League.) After an amazingly good 2018/19 campaign, what does the new season have in store for Scotland's teams?

Where We Stand

Scotland climbed from 26th to 20th last year, but there's more than a point separating them from moving up to 19th. We always keep in mind the important thresholds. The nation in 15th place gets two Champions League berths, the one in 17th gets later entry into the qualifying, and 24th is necessary to prevent all the teams from entering in the first qualifying round. The 26th place ranking from two years ago determines that is what happens to Scotland this year. Another fantastic performance like last year would probably be necessary to get up to 17th, with 15th a more realistic target for the subsequent year. It would take a truly terrible performance to drop down to 25th.

First-Round Matches

Everybody has something to look forward to, although sometimes they have to wait for the preliminary round (zeroth-round?) to know exactly who that is. A total of 2.0 points are available. No Swiss teams enter yet, so a clean sweep would pass Switzerland. Serbia, Norway and Belarus also have 2.0 points available, while Sweden has 1.5 and Israel has 1.0.

Celtic

In the Champions League, Celtic (Elo 1570) face Bosnian champions Sarajevo (Elo 1239). (The source of these stats, as in previous seasons is clubelo.com.) A difference of 331 Elo points corresponds to an 87% win probability, but that does not account for the fact that in a two-legged tie, the favorite has even more of an advantage. I expect the full 0.5 from Celtic, although 0.375 would not be shocking. If by some weird sequence of events, Celtic loses, they get placed in third-round Europa League qualifying due to an odd number of teams, or a wormhole.

Rangers

In the Europa League, runners-up Rangers (Elo 1514) face the winner between FC Prishtina (Elo 1111), the 2nd place Kosavar team and St. Joseph's (Elo 875), the 3rd place Gibraltar team. You expect to face Prishtina, and be even stronger favorites than Celtic. Look forward to the full 0.5, but remember that Scottish clubs have embarrassed themselves in Europe before (though not last year, and not under Brendan Rogers).

Kilmarnock

Can they make some noise under a new manager? Third-place Kilmarnock (Elo 1392) face Welsh runners-up Connah's Quay Nomads (Elo 1005). I expect another full set of points, but I am less confident here. Connah's Quay were invited to the Scottish Challenge Cup last year, where they lost in the final to a second-division Scottish club.

Aberdeen

It's good to see Derek McInnes have a shot at a longer run this time, instead of facing a Premier League club out of the gates. Fourth-place Aberdeen (Elo 1403) face Finnish runners-up RoPS (Elo unknown). Finland operates on a calendar year schedule, so that second-place finish was in 2018, and RoPS is currently 10th (out of 12 teams).

Anyway, for any one of these sides, you expect two victories, but someone somewhere is surely going to slip up. The best case is that nobody does, and you get the full 2.0 (or at worst 1.875). The worst case is a shock exit. I think between 1.5 and 1.75 would be a reasonable outcome, with all teams advancing.

Second-Round Sneak Peak

If Celtic wins, they face the winner of Estonian champions Nõmme Kalju (Elo 1046) and North Macedonian champions Shkëndija (Elo 1326). Probably a tougher match, with Celtic a definite favorite.

If Rangers wins, they face one of Cork City (Elo 1198), Progres Niedercorn (Elo 1190) or Cardiff Met University (Elo unknown). Although Niedercorn knocked Rangers out two years ago, this is a much better side, which should be a heavy favorite against any of those three.

If Kilmarnock wins, they face Partizan Belgrade (Elo 1560). They will be definite underdogs.

If Aberdeen wins, they face Fola Ech (Elo 1173) or Chikhura Sachkhere (Elo 1214). Either way, they should be favored.

Getting three sides through to the third round would be even better than last year's excellent start, and is the most likely scenario.

Nebula Update: The Calculating Stars

I'm now down to 7 books to read in my Nebula Best Novel quest. I finished the latest winner, The Calculating Stars. It has a lot of good bits, but I was put off by its approach to alternate history.

Here is my Goodreads review.

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The Calculating Stars by Mary Robinette Kowal

My rating: 3 of 5 stars


This book is well-written and compelling, but I can't bring myself to give it more than 3 stars. As with the novellette that ends the series, I find the rules of its alternate history confusing. In the notes, the author explains that she made Dewey instead of Truman president because she had written herself into a corner on the timeline in the novella. But then there's an asteroid strike that seems to be the main divergence, which is explained fairly differently in the prequel short story than it seems to be in the book. And then there's a character in the book who died in real life in 1920, so it seems like things are just being changed around for the convenience of the story.

If you can get past that, it's at least a 4-star book, if not 5 stars.



View all my reviews

Nebula Update: All the Birds in the Sky

I finally got around to reading the 2017 Nebula Best Novel winner, All the Birds in the Sky. It was not as good as I would have liked. I can't put my finger on what bothered me the most, but here are a few things. The style was very breezy. The first part felt like a YA novel (not in a good way). I gather that may have been a conscious choice to reflect the characters' ages, but it did not really mature as the book went on; it just added more "mature situations". At one point, an apartment was described as looking like it was from the show Hoarders. That's just not a good description for me. Also, the billionaire bankrolling science that is going to change the planet tires me out by this point. The author may have done some things differently with that, but it's still a warped view of how technological progress happens.

While I read that, the latest award went out to The Calculating Stars. Sadly, it was not the nominee I had already read. It's part of a series with a novella that I "kind of enjoyed." It's not the ringing endorsement I'd like, but I will plunge forward. This still leaves me with 8 books to read:

1. 1966: Flowers for Algernon (tie)
2. 1966: Babel-17 (tie)
3. 1968: Rite of Passage
4. 1976: Man Plus
5. 1978: Dreamsnake
6. 1981: The Claw of the Conciliator
7. 2018: The Stone Sky 
8. 2019: The Calculating Stars

Scottish Football: Three To Go

I have updated my crude simulation after this weekend's games. The new probabilities are:

1. Celtic 99.6% Rangers 0.4%
2. Rangers 99.6% Celtic 0.4%
3. Aberdeen 67.4% Kilmarnock 30.9% Hibs 1.8%
4. Kilmarnock 59.1% Aberdeen 31.1% Hibs 9.6% Hearts 0.2%
5. Hibs 76.1% Hearts 12.7% Kilmarnock 9.7% Aberdeen 1.5%
6. Hearts 87.1% Hibs 12.6% Kilmarnock 0.3%

In words, Celtic failed to clinch the title, but is almost certain to. Rangers clinched no worse than 2nd (and a European place). The race for 3rd and 4th is still basically Aberdeen and Kilmarnock, with Aberdeen 2-1 favorites to nab 3rd, and Hibs having an 11% chance of sneaking in there. The difference between 3rd and 4th will matter if Hearts shocks Celtic for the Cup.

Scottish Football: Four Matches To Go

I will once again use my crude simulation to update the top half of the Scottish Premiership as each set of matches goes by.

1. Celtic 98.8% Rangers 1.2%
2. Rangers 97.4% Celtic 1.2% Aberdeen 1.2% Kilmarnock 0.2%
3. Aberdeen 64.1% Kilmarnock 33.0% Hibs 1.5% Rangers 4.1% Hearts 0.01%
4. Kilmarnock 58.8% Aberdeen 32.9% Hibs 7.9% Hearts 0.4% Rangers 0.03%
5. Hibs 71.6% Hearts 18.7% Kilmarnock 7.9% Aberdeen 1.8%
6. Hearts 80.8% Hibs 19.0% Kilmarnock 0.1% Aberdeen 0.003%

So, in words. Celtic failed to clinch, thus opening up the chances they won't win. (Although if this simulation were weighted by team rating, the chance would be almost zero.) Rangers came very, very close to clinching a European place. If a 1-in-3700 sequence of events happens in the league, and Hearts wins the Cup, they're left out. Aberdeen's defeat of Kilmarnock put them in the driver's seat for the 3rd slot and guaranteed Europe. Hibs' draw left them slipping out of the European places, and Hearts loss means that the Cup is almost certainly the only way they get into Europe.

[This post was updated after I discovered a coding error that made slight changes in the probabilities.]

Scottish Football: More European Speculation

Recently I posted some subjective odds for which Scottish clubs would represent the country in next year's European tournaments. As I did last year, I will provide something more objective.

I will use the same criteria as last year.

• All teams have equal chances
• Each match (except the Scottish Cup final) has a 1/3 chance of ending in a draw.
• All non-draws have a goal differential of 1.
• If two teams are tied on points and goal differential, the team that is currently ahead will stay ahead.

If I wanted better odds, I would bother to program in the odds from Fivethirtyeight for all upcoming matches. But I think this is close enough.

Since the Scottish Cup final is Celtic-Hearts, we have the following situation. If Celtic wins, the top 4 in the league make it to Europe. If Hearts win, it's the top 3, plus Hearts...unless Hearts also finishes third, in which case the 4th place team makes it too. That is exceedingly unlikely, but I had to program for it.

Celtic:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 99.5%
• Chance of being Europa League representative: 0.5%
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 0%

Rangers:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0.5%
• Chance of being Europa League representative: 99.4%
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 0.1%

Kilmarnock:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0%
• Chance of being Europa League representative: 71.5%
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 29.5%

Aberdeen:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0%
• Chance of being Europa League representative: 67.0%
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 33.0%

Hibernian:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0%
• Chance of being Europa League representative: 10.1%
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 89.9%

Hearts:

• Chance of being Champions League representative: 0%
• Chance of being Europa League representative: 51.6%
• Chance of missing out on Europe: 48.4% 

In words, if Celtic wins the Scottish Cup, it will probably be Celtic, Rangers, Kilmarnock and Aberdeen. If Hearts wins, it will probably be Celtic, Rangers, Hearts and whichever one of Kilmarnock and Aberdeen takes 3rd place. Hibernian has an outside chance of taking a spot away from Kilmarnock or Aberdeen.

Geocaching: Slow Winter 2019

I, uh, found six caches in Winter 2019. So not much to report.

On January 7, I was First-to-Find (FTF) on a geocache near me. I've been advised to take a picture of the log in case there is a dispute about who found it first, so there it is above. That's my 19th FTF, and my 12th different FTF Difficulty/Terrain (D/T) combo. January 2019 is the 182th month a geocache was hidden in that I found a cache.

On February 17, I found four caches. They were in Stafford County (County 88), Fredericksburg (County-equivalent 89) and Spotsylvania County (County 90). Above, you can see me at one of the virtual caches. That was one of two I found that day hidden in June 2001 (Month 183).

On February 19, I had another FTF (#20). It was my 13th FTF D/T Combo, and February 2019 was my 184th hidden month.

Here is my chart of hidden months. (I find this helpful to refer back to next time to see which ones got added.)

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2019 European Speculation

The final four of the Scottish Cup is set, so I will give my subjective outlook on which sides I expect to end up in Europe next season. There are 3 more matches before the split (where the top-half sides only play top-half sides). At the split, I will get more quantitative.

Celtic

Chance of playing in Europe: 99.99%
Path to Europe: Not have a complete collapse in the league, or have a complete collapse and not have the teams below them have a spectacular rise, or win the Scottish Cup. Basically, they can still mathematically finish as low as sixth, but that's not going to happen. Fivethirtyeight gives them a 96% chance to win the league again, and being passed by three or four other clubs is almost out of the question.
How happy we should be if they are in Europe: Very. If Rangers pulls off the 4% upset, they might add enough quality for the Champions League, but Celtic is clearly the class of the nation still.
Managerial Outlook: Last year I said, "...it's not unrealistic to see Brendan Rogers being lured away." He was! But Neil Lennon is also very good. Hopefully they keep him, but 

Rangers

Chance of playing in Europe: 95%
Path to Europe: Not have a collapse in the league. They're second and have been playing well. It would be a disappointment to end up third, a big disappointment to end up fourth, and even that would be enough depending on who wins the Cup.
How happy we should be if they are in Europe: Very. They are the only side other than Celtic I can see making it into the knockout stages.
Managerial Outlook: It doesn't seem time for Brendan Rogers to be lured away yet.

Aberdeen

Chance of playing in Europe: 90%
Path to Europe: Hold on in third, win the Cup, or drop to fourth and have Celtic win the Cup. (Or drop to fourth and have Hearts move up to third and win the Cup.)
How happy we should be if they are in Europe: Quite. They have consistently had decent European results, stopped only by running up against an EPL side (who they almost beat).
Managerial Outlook: If Derek McInnes didn't leave for Rangers, I think he's there for a while. He would like to hoist a trophy or two.

Kilmarnock

Chance of playing in Europe: 40%
Path to Europe: Stay in fourth and have Celtic and Aberdeen win the Cup, or move up.
How happy we should be if they are in Europe: Not. They are a classic Scottish side who overachieves domestically, but doesn't have the funds to compete in Europe.
Managerial Outlook: Clarke seems like a great manager; maybe he will take over a bigger Scottish club.

Hearts

Chance of playing in Europe: 55%
Path to Europe: Win the Cup, move up to fourth and have Celtic or Aberdeen win the Cup, or move up to third. They have had some nice results, so moving up to fourth or winning the Cup can't be ruled out.
How happy we should be if they are in Europe: Somewhat. They have the resources and they may be willing to spend a little with their stadium renovations done.
Managerial Outlook: Good. Levein is doing a good job, and doesn't seem to have ambitions elsewhere.

Everybody Else

Chance of playing in Europe: 25%
Path to Europe: Hibs, Motherwell, St. Johnstone and Livingston are all alive for the sixth spot at the split. Then they could mathematically make it into the top three or four. Maybe 25% is high, but Hibs could make some noise. Inverness CT doesn't have much chance to win the Cup out of the second tier, but it has happened before.
How happy we should be if they are in Europe: Not, except maybe Hibs.
Managerial Outlook: Mixed.

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2018/9 Knockout-Round Review

Well, the knockout rounds aren't over, but they are for Scotland. Celtic got swept in the Europa League Round-of-32, so that's that. A sad end to a really excellent campaign.

I mean, 20th! That's not nothing! And look at those 6.75 points from this year's campaign. That's the most in 11 years. It's the 10th-best in Europe this year (though 4 countries below them still have teams active). Anyway, 20th will put them in decent shape for the 2020/21 campaign, but more importantly, it positions them well for next year's climb up the charts (which, I remind you, affects the 2021/22 campaign).

So in 2020/21, Scotland won't be in the embarrassing spot that they will be in 2019/20, with a first-round entry for all their teams. But they haven't climbed up enough to make any sort of improvement. Yet.

Before we start looking ahead, let's look back one last time. How did Scotland get 6.75 points? Well, they got 2.875 from Celtic, actually a little worse than last year. But Rangers produced 2.75, Hibs contributed 1, and poor Aberdeen chipped in a measly 0.125.

I think sustained runs from the Old Firm are a possibility every year now. Aberdeen will probably be back and could get a friendlier draw, and the fourth team (probably not Hibs) may or may not be able to contribute a point again.

Scotland starts out the next campaign still in 20th. It actually looks harder to climb up than to fall down, but another solid performance would do it.

Looking ahead to 2020/21 (where we are setting the ranking for 2022/23) is where the Scottish surge could really come into play.

Two years like the last, and Scotland could see two Champions League representatives again...four years from now.

Nebula Update: The Falling Woman

I read a Nebula Best Novel winner for the first time in several years. I also let a couple of years go by without reading that year's winner. Of the six finalists this year, I have read one of them. Guess which one I'm rooting for!

This leaves me with

1. 1966: Flowers for Algernon (tie)
2. 1966: Babel-17 (tie)
3. 1968: Rite of Passage
4. 1976: Man Plus
5. 1978: Dreamsnake
6. 1981: The Claw of the Conciliator
7. 2017: All the Birds in the Sky
8. 2018: The Stone Sky

Below is my Goodreads review of The Falling Woman.

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The Falling Woman by Pat Murphy

My rating: 2 of 5 stars


I read this in my quest to read all of the Nebula Best Novel winners. This one was a slog. That is partially on me. I prefer more traditional forms of fantasy rather than a real-world story with some mystical elements layered on.

It’s partially on the novel, though. The best novels draw me in, regardless of genre. This one didn’t, and it wasn’t helped by the at-times clunky prose.

View all my reviews

2018 Stay-At-Home Bowl Preview

It is playoff time in the NFL, which means that as a Redskins fan, I turn my attention to something other than following my team.

Yes, it's the Stay-At-Home Bowl, the honor I bestow upon a team that has beaten both Super Bowl participants. With the final eight teams decided, there are five out of the sixteen possible Super Bowls that will cause the honor to be bestowed.

• New England-Dallas: Tennessee would win.
• New England-Philadelphia: Tennessee would also win.
• Kansas City-Dallas: Seattle would win.
• Indianapolis-Rams: Philadelphia would win.
• Indianapolis-Dallas: Houston would win.

I guess what I am saying is that the NFC East wasn't very good, so their playoff teams lost to a lot of teams, so in the unlikely event that one of them ends up in the playoffs (dear God, no), there's a decent chance you have a winner.

Last year's winner, Kansas City is doing pretty well this year, continuing the trend of winners having a good next season.

Geocaching: Quiet Fall 2018

This fall, I found only 10 caches (bringing me to 424), all in Virginia or California. But some of them were memorable!

On September 30, in order to teach the boys about compass use, I found my second letterbox.

I only found two in October, one in California (in a mall parking garage) and one in Virginia (across the street from our post office). Neither were to do anything more than pass some time.

In November, I had my first month since 2015 where I didn't find a geocache. I guess life was busy.

Paradise

In December, a trip to Northern California allowed me to fill in some areas I had never been to before. My first find was in Paradise, recently devastated by the Camp Fire. There was a virtual cache there, and I confirmed that the historical marker necessary to claim the cache had survived the fire. Butte County was County 82.

From Paradise, I drove to Oroville to find a challenge cache (also in Butte County), then farther south until I hit Yuba County, to claim one in County 83.

Unfortunately, this cache was pretty much disintegrated. I posted a note, and the cache has recently been disabled pending maintenance.

Needs Maintenance

From there, I drove to Yuba City, which is in Sutter County (County 84), not Yuba County like you might think. I visited a war memorial that served as a virtual cache.

Yuba City War Memorial

I ran out of daylight before I could add a fourth county that day -- one of the lesser perils of winter caching, I suppose.

The next day, on my way to the airport, I found caches in Glenn County (County 85) and Sutter County (County 86). I missed another county because I couldn't find a cache at a rest stop. Then, at the airport, there was a new virtual cache, which gave me Sacramento County (County 87).

Sacramento Virtual

So how did these 10 caches affect my stats? I didn't find any new difficulty/terrain combos. I only found one new month (November 2017) -- from the challenge cache.

With three new months appearing, that increases my total of missing months to 43. The three from 2018 should all be pretty easy, however.

My California counties map has really filled out.

Sixteen down, forty-two to go! I bet I can get at least one more in 2019, and several more if I get to spend any time in the Bay Area.

Because Sacramento and Chico are close in latitude to the DC area, I was able to make some progress on the 38 and 39 North challenges. Recall each requires finding one cache for each of the 60 minutes of longitude within a given degree. I found two more for the 38 North challenge, bringing me to 27. I found three more for the 39 North challenge to 22. I am still doing better in the longitude challenges.

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2018/9 Knockout-Round Preview

Celtic made it through to the knockout round! Rangers almost did, and picked up a bunch of points in the process.

The "neighborhood" of nations within 2 points of Scotland has shrunk, but 20th place is not settled yet.

Group-Stage Review

Rangers put together a win and three draws -- not quite enough to advance, but enough to pick up 1.125 for the coefficient. Rangers bowed out having been worth 2.75 for the coefficient; this year shows what good shape Scotland is in when more than just Celtic contributes.

Celtic contributed three wins -- barely enough to advance, and good for 1.25 for the coefficient. Overall, they have brought 2.875 to the coefficent this year, slightly better than their Old Firm rivals.

I said that better than 2 points total from the group stage and having a team make it out would be good. With 2.375 points and Celtic through, Scotland had a good year.

Knockout-Round Preview

Celtic got a tough draw. I'm going to use the Fivethirtyeight ratings to preview things. Valencia is the fifth-best rated of the thirty-two teams remaining. As a second place finisher, Celtic was almost certain to have a tough draw, but this is one of the toughest.

Fivethirtyeight gives Celtic a 24% chance of advancing. The average expectation is for them to pick up 0.5 more for the coefficient; that would represent salvaging one draw.

So a good round would be picking up a full point, even if they don't advance, and a bad round would be two losses (which would not be shocking, given the quality of the opposition).

Where We Are

There was an article in the Scottish newspaper The Herald that I think confused the issue, with statements like, "So in terms of significant improvement, Scottish football needs teams to excel in Europe’s top club competition. Obviously, this isn’t the case this the season but improvements can still be made that will bring tangible rewards in the next couple of seasons."

Here's what that analysis missed. Scotland no longer needs to improve; it merely needs to maintain this year's level of quality. The 6.750 points picked up so far this year, maintained for five years, would put its coefficient at 33.75. Over the past few years, that would have been good enough for 11th-13th. Recall that getting to 15th or 17th is the goal.

For this year's coefficient, a single draw would push them past Serbia into 19th. Although they would need to get to 17th to guarantee skipping early rounds, this year because of various details 19th was good enough, so it might be good enough in 2020/21 (when these ratings take effect).

Next year, they will start in 20th (the terrible 2013/4 qualifying cycle still hits them for one more year). They will have one chance to make the hard climb to 15th before they end up in Europa League 2.

(I read the announcement for this new league. I am mostly going to ignore its effects for now, since it seems mostly to be a split of the Europa League for our purposes. It may have a mild positive effect of exposing Scottish teams to weaker competition, and a mild negative effect of hurting revenues and recruitment by putting them in the third-tier competition.)

Geocaching: Summer 2018

This summer, I found 39 caches in 6 states and 2 foreign countries, bringing me up to 414 caches found.

I started out the summer hiking with the kids to find one from December 2012 (175th month found), which earned the first souvenir in this summer's "Hidden Creatures" promotion -- Bigfoot (my 47th souvenir).

A few days later, I found a new-ish one from July 2018 (176th month), which also got me the Fairy souvenir (48th).

On landing in Illinois, my 17th state, I found one in Kane County, my 71st county. That also earned my 49th souvenir for the state of Illinois.

After driving to Wisconsin, my 18th state, I found one in Dane County, my 72nd county. That earned the Wisconsin souvenir, my 49th. It was a virtual cache, where I took my picture with Bucky the Beaver.

That also earned me my 51st souvenir -- Unicorn.

A couple of days later, I took a road trip from Madison and picked up caches in Rock County, Wisconsin (County #73) and Winnebago County, Illinois (County #74). The four I found in Rock County were challenge caches which each gave me new difficulty/terrain combos (numbers 34-37). I also picked up souvenirs 52-54 (Hippocamp, Kraken and Mermaid -- I'm going to stop including the pictures.

On the way back to the airport, I found a couple in Cook County, Illinois (County #75) -- including one in the airport. That got me my 55th souvenir (and the last one of the Hidden Creatures promotion). It also marked the end of my longest caching streak to date (7 days).

A trip to Texas gave me my 19th state, along with counties 76, 77, 78 and 79. The Texas souvenir was my 56th. The two Texas virtuals are pictured below.

One of the Texas caches was from November 2012 (Month #178).

Back in Maryland, I got my 18th FTF (First-to-Find) on one of the limited-edition virtual caches, so it was also my first find of that cache type.

On my way to England, I stopped in Dublin, Ireland and got Country #12 and Souvenir #57 (there is a separate Dublin souvenir). While in England, I found another new virtual, which gave me August 2018 (Month #179).
8/12/18, Country #12, Souvenir #57.

On September 1, I found another challenge cache with a new D/T Combo (#38). I found 2 other caches that day, and it apparently was the first day I found three different types of caches in a day.



A trip to California meant that I was able to secure County 80 (Riverside County), County 81 (San Bernadino County), and Month 181 (March 2006), as well as D/T combo #39.

So, where am I, after some ambitious caching?

I have almost half of the D/T combos. I have been filling out the ones outside of the upper left mostly through the use of challenge caches. I'm not sure how far I can stretch that, but every time I go to a new area, I try to find a few that I didn't have before.

I am missing 41 months, including the current one. That's down from 47 at the end of Winter. I thought I was going to get a rare May 2000 one near Chicago, but the trail was closed.

Adding three new states makes the map look better.

The counties map is looking more interesting, especially the big counties in California. Of course, I only went to the very western tip of each of those two, but it still counts for the map. That's only about 2.6% of the total counties.

Where's Jon? Irvine Edition

Can you spot me in this picture from last week's "Conference on open questions in cryptography and number theory" in Irvine?

There I am!

Frank Collins Nicholson (1889-1972), who pitched in two games for the Phillies

Last week, the Washington Post had an article about a pitcher who missed his one shot at the big leagues when his scheduled start for the Phillies was rained out.

That reminded me of another pitcher, who did not miss his one chance with the Phillies -- Frank Collins Nicholson. He pitched a total of six innings over two games in 1912. He was my great-great-uncle.

In the family photo, he is the guy in the back with the hat. He is next to his brother Elwyn Nicholson. In the front are his other brothers Clarence "Fat" Nicholson, and William S. Nicholson, my great-grandfather. Thanks to my Aunt Pam for the picture.

If you touch the major leagues, even for an instant, that stays with you for the rest of your life (and beyond). Here is his obituary:

And here is a remembrance from his hometown paper shortly afterwards. It recounts when, as a minor-leaguer, he faced the major-league pitching of "Chief Bender" and "poled out a three-bagger."

Here is another story from a few years after his passing:

And here is another story about his game against Chief Bender and the Philadelphia A's. It contains my favorite line, which is thank Uncle Frank was "a wizard moundsman with the spit ball."

I originally posted this on Facebook, but I thought I would put it on the blog for wider dissemination. If you have come across this and are related to Frank Nicholson, or if you have any more information about his baseball career, please e-mail me at

Scotland's UEFA Coefficient: 2018/9 Group-Stage Preview

We have group stage! For two clubs!
🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆
It didn't seem possible when the various draws were announced, but...I guess Rangers really is better this year?

 Scotland's "neighborhood" (nations within 2 points of them) has shrunk to 20-27 -- versus 19-29 at the start of the competition. The difference is, Scotland is near the top of this neighborhood.

They are having the 3rd best year of any nation so far. (Of course, the top nations are just getting started with the group stages.) Serbia (at 19) and Norway are the only ones doing better. Scotland, Norway and Cyprus are the only countries to start with 4 teams and still have 2 alive.

Playoff-Round Review

Celtic settled for a draw away, and then closed things out with an emphatic win at home. Rangers started with a 1-0 win at home, which put them in good position, then somehow clung to a 1-1 draw despite being down to 9 men late in the match. A few things going differently could have exceeded the 0.75 points gained in the round, but it seems petty to quibble.

Group-Stage Preview

Group stage! The road gets even tougher here. I'm going to use Clubelo ratings one last time to give you a sense of how hard. Celtic (Elo 1550) is grouped with previous opponents Rosenborg (1542), Red Bull Salzburg (1714) and Red Bull Leipzig (1689). Rangers (1444) is grouped with Villareal (1752), Rapid Vienna (1565) and Spartak Moscow (1685).

Clubelo doesn't look at individual matches all the way into December, like we want to do, so I'm going to switch to Fivethirtyeight's predictions. They give Celtic only a 30% chance of making it out of the group, and Rangers a mere 12%.

Looking at the individual matches, things don't look great either. The only match where a Scottish side is favored is their opening tilt versus Rosenborg. But that's not likely the only points we'll see during the group stages.

If you add up the probabilities across all the games, even Rangers can be expected to steal a win and a draw. Celtic should do even better, with one or two wins and one or two draws.

Add it up, and the Fivethirtyeight estimates expect at least two more points for the coefficient. So I'm going to set my expectations there. A good run will be one where they exceed that and put a team through to the knockout rounds, and a bad one will be earning below 1.5 points.

Where We Stand

Four whole points for the year is as many as they got all last year, even after Celtic made it to the knockout rounds of the Europa League (via the Champions League group stages).

Above them, Belarus should pick up about a point in BATE Borisov's group, which would allow them to be caught by Scotland for 20th place. Sweden might pick up a point and a half from Malmö, which wouldn't be enough to catch Scotland. Norway's two entrants aren't supposed to do as well as Scotland's two...but these are all probabilities, so a series of small upsets could set back Scotland's match to 20th.

The hope, however, is that this excellent season will take Scotland away from worrying about having all Europa League entrants come in during the first round (like next year), and move closer to where the question is whether they can compete for 17th. There, the cup winner enters at the third round, and the second-place team enters in the second round. The real prize, however, is 15th, which will require a consistent 5.5 points per year. This is the year Scotland can show that's realistic.